Forecast #EP2019 – 13th May 2019

This is our latest forecast for the 23rd of May 2019 European Parliament Election in Great Britain.

This is a Nowcast representing the result if the election were held today. We move to a full Forecast for the actual election in the last seven days of the Election Campaign.

The forecast below is our standard forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the expected range of percentage vote for each party, together with the central forecast. The range is a 50% confidence interval. We also show the expected number of seats across the whole of Great Britain.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

Do you do a regional forecast for Wales and Scotland? – For a General Election we would conduct a forecast at regional and sub-regional levels. At present the level of polling data for the UK does not support regional forecasts.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The Brexit Party continues to increase its lead over the other parties, but with minimal polling data there is a level of uncertainty as to their final position. The Liberal Democrats continue to rise as they are perceived by some of the electorate as a “Remain” vote.

There is no forecast for Northern Ireland due to limited data. We anticipate a similar result to 2014 (1 seat each for Sinn Fein, DUP and UUP).

UK Forecast

Party   % Vote   Forecast Seats   Change on 2014
 Brexit Party   33.1% (30.4% – 35.8%)   30   +30
 Labour   21.1% (19.0% – 23.2%)   17   -3
Liberal Democrats   14.1% (12.8% – 15.4%)   10   +9
Conservatives   11.5% (10.2% – 12.8%)   8   -11
Green   8.1% (7.2% – 9.0%)   2   -1
Change UK   4.1% (1.8% – 6.4%)   0  
UKIP   3.5% (2.7% – 4.3%)   0   -24
SNP   2.8% (2.1% – 3.5%)   2  
Plaid Cymru   0.6% (0.1% – 1.1%)   1    –

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