Forecast #EP2019 – 17th May 2019

This is our latest forecast for the 23rd of May 2019 European Parliament Election in Great Britain.

This is a Forwardcast representing the result we expect on the 23rd of May.

What does your forecast show? – We show the expected range of percentage vote for each party, together with the central forecast. The range is a 50% confidence interval (but will move to a 95% confidence interval for our final forecast). We also show the expected number of seats across the whole of Great Britain.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

Do you do a regional forecast for Wales and Scotland? – For a General Election we would conduct a forecast at regional and sub-regional levels. At present the level of polling data for the UK does not support regional forecasts.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

New polling evidence indicates that the lower levels of support for the Brexit Party in our last forecast were a bump in the general trend. This forecast presents a central point for the Brexit Party’s support of over 35%. There is increasing evidence of a dramatic collapse not just in Conservative Party support across the country but also a swing of Labour votes to the Brexit Party (Labour Leave voters) and the Liberal Democrats (Labour Remain voters).

There is still great uncertainty in the Brexit Party support and our confidence interval shows a 50% probability of a vote share anywhere in the thirties. We hope that further polling before next week will help to firm up the position, but with different polling firms reporting remarkably different level of support this may not be possible.

We are beginning to see good evidence that the debate around Brexit is leaving Plaid Cymru with little media coverage. We believe there is a significant probability they will lose their current seat.

There is no forecast for Northern Ireland due to limited data. We anticipate a similar result to 2014 (1 seat each for Sinn Fein, DUP and UUP).

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Seats Change on 2014
Brexit Party 35.9% (31.8% – 40.0%) 34 +34
Labour 16.9% (13.2% – 20.6%) 13 -7
Liberal Democrats 16.2% (13.4% – 19.0%) 11 +10
Conservatives 9.9% (7.9% – 11.9%) 5 -14
Green 9.2% (7.7% – 10.7%) 5 +2
Change UK 5.3% (4.1% – 6.5%) 0 
UKIP 3.3% (2.9% – 3.7%) 0 -24
SNP 2.8% (2.4% – 3.2%) 2 
Plaid Cymru 0.5% (0.3% – 0.7%) 0 -1
Brexit Party, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative  



Vote Order

Top Four

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