Forecast #GE2017 – 21st May 2017


This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day. It is therefore a NowCast and is not the same as a formal prediction of what will happen on the 8th of June.

Our NowCast is based on the most recent polling data.

Key Features

The recent upturn in Labour support now represents a significant change on the situation two weeks ago. According to our NowCast, if the election was held today it would be a “wasted election” for the Conservatives with little change on the 2015 result.

We are now much more certain of the increase in support for Labour and so our projected vote share range has contracted significantly. This is also represented in the forecast of seats for Labour which is dramatically improved even on our NowCast of two days ago. The majority of the increase in Labour support has been in England, but there is increasing evidence of an upturn in polling for Labour in Scotland and (particularly) Wales.

Polling on the Conservative manifesto pledges indicates that even those who plan to vote Tory are split on some of the key policies. Survation show that there is a statistical tie between Tory voters supporting and opposing the removal of free school meals for KS1 pupils and the proposed changes to social care funding.

It should be pointed out that our forecast assumes that people will vote in a manner consistent with their intentions given to pollsters AND that there is no other local effect. Anecdotal evidence from all side (see here for e.g. Labour) indicates that the position on the ground in key marginal may be different and that there is a great deal of negative sentiment towards Jeremy Corbyn in traditional Labour areas. That said, the increase in Labour polling is now indisputable and is being reflected in key betting markets.

We see increasing evidence that the Labour / Conservative battle is squeezing the vote of minority parties. UKIP (in particular), the Greens and Plaid Cymru are all showing evidence of losing significant levels of support in the last week.

We will watch the polls carefully over the next few days to see any evidence that this surge in support for Labour is sustained and whether it is targeted in the key areas Labour require it to be to avoid the kind of Conservative landslide that was anticipated at the start of the campaign.

Our Northern Ireland forecast remains unchanged with no new opinion polls.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2015
 Conservatives 44.8% (41.3% – 48.3%) 341 – 356 +11 to +26
 Labour 34.1% (32.5% – 35.7%) 220 – 233 -12 to +1
 SNP 4.1% 44 – 51 -12 to -5
Liberal Democrats 7.8% (5.7% – 9.9%) 4 – 10 -4 to +2
Plaid Cymru 0.4% 0 – 2 -3 to -1
Green 1.8% 0 – 2 -1 to +1
UKIP 4.3% (0.3% – 8.3%) 0 same
 Speaker 1
Northern Irish 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 52

This majority assumes 4 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.

We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2015
SNP 42.9% 44 – 51 -12 to -5
Conservatives 28.8% 6 – 12 +5 to +11
Labour 21.0% 0 – 2 -1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 5.8% 0 – 3 -1 to +2
Greens 0.7%

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2015
Labour 44.6% 22 – 27 -3 to +2
Conservatives 39.7% 11 – 16 same to +5
Plaid Cymru 7.3% 0 – 2 -3 to -1
Liberal Democrats 5.3% 0 – 2 -1 to +1
UKIP 3.0%
Greens negligible

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast
DUP 26.7% 9
Sinn Fein 25.7% 5
SDLP 12.4% 2
UUP 14.8 1
Independent 1
Greens 1.9%

Leave a Reply