Forecast #GE2017 – 24th May 2017


This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.

National Election Campaigning has been suspended after the events of the 22nd of May in Manchester. At present there is no firm indication of when it will resume. As yet are no opinion polls released with questions asked after the bombing.

The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day. It is therefore a NowCast and is not the same as a formal prediction of what will happen on the 8th of June.

Our NowCast is based on the most recent polling data.

Key Features

There is evidence that the surge for Labour is beginning to reverse in England with our NowCast indicating a better position for the Conservatives than three days ago. With the closure of nominations it is also possible to confirm candidate lists and to understand how the absence of UKIP in a number of seats they stood in in 2015 will affect party support in those places.

We see evidence that the Liberal Democrats are doing particularly well in Scotland and are well positioned to win back some of the seats there they lost in 2015.

Polling on the Conservative manifesto pledges indicates that even those who plan to vote Tory are split on some of the key policies. Survation show that there is a statistical tie between Tory voters supporting and opposing the removal of free school meals for KS1 pupils and the proposed changes to social care funding.

It should be pointed out that our forecast assumes that people will vote in a manner consistent with their intentions given to pollsters AND that there is no other local effect. Anecdotal evidence from all side (see here for e.g. Labour) indicates that the position on the ground in key marginal may be different and that there is a great deal of negative sentiment towards Jeremy Corbyn in traditional Labour areas. That said, the increase in Labour polling is now indisputable and is being reflected in key betting markets.

We see increasing evidence that the Labour / Conservative battle is squeezing the vote of minority parties. UKIP (in particular), the Greens and Plaid Cymru are all showing evidence of losing significant levels of support in the last week.

We will watch the polls carefully over the next few days to see the response of the electorate to the Manchester bombing and the raising of the UK Threat Level..

Our Northern Ireland forecast remains unchanged with no new opinion polls.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2015
 Conservatives 45.7% (41.3% – 50.0%) 353 – 361 +23 to +31
 Labour 34.1% (31.1% – 37.1%) 213 – 222 -18 to -9
 SNP 3.8% 40 – 48 -16 to -8
Liberal Democrats 8.8% (7.0% – 10.6%) 8 – 11 -1 to +2
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1 – 4 -2 to +1
Green 1.5% 0 – 2 -1 to +1
UKIP 3.1% (2.3% – 3.9%) 0 same
 Speaker 1
Northern Irish 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 68

This majority assumes 4 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.

We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2015
SNP 40.7% 40 – 48 -16 to -8
Conservatives 26.6% 7 – 10 +6 to +9
Labour 23.1% 0 – 4 -1 to +3
Liberal Democrats 8.8% 3 – 6 +2 to +5
Greens 0.4%

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2015
Labour 45.5% 22 – 28 -3 to +3
Conservatives 32.4% 9 – 14 -2 to +3
Plaid Cymru 9.8% 1 – 4 -2 to +1
Liberal Democrats 5.4% 0 – 2 -1 to +1
UKIP 5.1%
Greens negligible

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast
DUP 26.7% 9
Sinn Fein 25.7% 5
SDLP 12.4% 2
UUP 14.8 1
Independent 1
Greens 1.9%

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