Forecast #GE2017 – 28th May 2017


This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.

National Election Campaigning has resumed after the suspension following the events of the 22nd of May in Manchester. Our latest NowCast includes data from polls with fieldwork after the Manchester Bombing.

The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day. It is therefore a NowCast and is not the same as a formal prediction of what will happen on the 8th of June.

Our NowCast is based on the most recent polling data, where data tables have been issued.

Key Features

Change in Conservative Lead over Campaign

We continue to see evidence that the Labour surge is receding and that Conservative support is recovering. Our analysis indicates that Conservative support is now moving upwards in all three major regions (England, Scotland, Wales) with particular improvements in Scotland and Wales, where Tory support is back to the level of ten days ago. In Scotland in particular there is evidence that the increase in support for the Conservatives may take them within distance of winning many SNP seats.

We see evidence that the Liberal Democrats are being squeezed and may lose seats.

Our Northern Ireland forecast has been updated.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2015
 Conservatives 44.8% (38.2% – 51.4%) 363 – 374 +33 to +44
 Labour 33.2% (30.4% – 36.0%) 206 – 216 -25 to -15
 SNP 3.8% 40 – 45 -16 to -11
Liberal Democrats 7.5% (5.1% – 9.9%) 3 – 6 -6 to -3
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 2 – 4 -1 to +1
Green 2.3% 0 – 2 -1 to +1
UKIP 5.4% (4.1% – 6.5%) 0 – 1 same to +1
 Speaker 1
Northern Irish 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 94

This majority assumes 5 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.

We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2015
SNP 41.6% 40 – 45 -16 to -11
Conservatives 30.3% 12 – 17 +11 to +16
Labour 23.3% 0 – 4 -1 to +3
Liberal Democrats 3.5% 0 – 1 -1 to same
Greens 0.8%

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2015
Conservatives 42.1% 18 – 22 +7 to +11
Labour 36.8% 15 – 19 -10 to -6
Plaid Cymru 11.7% 2 – 4 -1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 3.6% 0 – 1 -1 to same
UKIP 3.8%
Greens 1.8%

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2015
DUP 28.5% 7 – 12 -1 to +4
Sinn Fein 27.0% 3 – 6 -1 to +2
SDLP 12.4% 1 – 3 -1 to +1
UUP 14.8% 0 – 2 -2 to same
Alliance 9.8% 0 – 1 same to +1
Independent 1 same
Greens 1.0%

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