8 Days to Go.
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
- The vote surge towards the Conservatives continues. Constituency level polling indicates that this is not yet translating into seats.
- Evidence continues to come in of a high level of support for the SNP in Scotland
Changes indicated from Wednesday’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 35.58% (+0.55%) | 280 (-1) |
| Labour | 33.31% (-0.51%) | 266 (+3) |
| UKIP | 11.77% (-0.79%) | 2 (-1) |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.94% (+0.62%) | 23 (nc) |
| Green | 4.89% (+0.19%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 4.34% (-0.15%) | 55 (-1) |
| PC | 0.72% (+0.07%) | 4 (nc) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.