We have updated our EWMA analysis on YouGov poll ratings. Key observations are as follows. UKIP has fallen to a new mean and shows early evidence of moving towards the lower bounds of the new range Labour is moving towards the high end of their new range The Liberal Democrats […]
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our forecast sees midpoint values of an equal number of seats for Conservatives and Labour The […]
In the past few weeks we have looked a methods of trying to track a significant change in the level of support for the main parties in the YouGov polls. Today we look at the use of EWMA Charts which are a form of statistical control used in engineering and […]
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our forecast sees a levelling in the Conservative midpoint position, but a clear reduction in their […]
Last week we examined the movement of support for all the main UK parties since the start of 2015. Since then we now have a complete set of polling data from YouGov for February so we can explore movement during that month. In the analysis below we have built a […]
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our latest forecast sees an improvement in the Conservative party position, with a mid-point prediction similar […]
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid […]
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid […]
We will shortly be publishing our new forecast for the 2015 General Election. It will be very different from previous forecasts where we have indicated a clear Conservative lead. Why the Change? Our previous forecasts have been based on the assumption that the movement in Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat […]
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI Conservatives 310 295 – 321 267 […]