UK 2015 – Forecast – 27th February


This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

Forecast

  • Our latest forecast sees an improvement in the Conservative party position, with a mid-point prediction similar to the 2010 result.
  • The SNP position continues to strengthen in Scotland (our probability of Labour being beaten in the seat count in Scotland is now 99.2%) and this dampens any expectation of a Labour plurality despite the Labour vote holding up.
  • The support for UKIP continues to fall (and as we have shown here, is the only statistically significant trend since the start of 2015).
  • We are seeing very low levels of support for Plaid Cymru in the Wales sub-samples. One or two larger sampled polls in the Principality would help to firm up whether this is a clear trend in public opinion or just normal statistical variance.

Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows.

Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI
Conservatives 308 295 – 321 273 – 341
Labour 272 259 – 286 232 – 309
Liberal Democrats 9 7 – 12 5 – 20
UKIP 1 0 – 2 0 – 11
SNP 37 31 – 43 19 – 52
PC 2 1 – 3 0 – 4
Others inc. Green (GB) 3 2 – 3 2 – 6
Irish 18 n/a n/a

Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for votes (mainland GB) is as follows.

Party Vote% – Mid Point Vote% 50% CI Vote% 95% CI
Conservatives 33.5 32.6 – 34.3 30.8 – 35.7
Labour 32.1 31.2 – 33.0 29.6 – 34.6
Liberal Democrats 10.9 10.2 – 11.5 9.0 – 13.1
UKIP 12.8 11.3 – 14.1 8.9 – 16.6
Green 5.7 5.2 – 6.2 4.3 – 7.2

Our probability of different outcomes is as follows.

Event Probability
Conservative Majority 19.7%
Conservative Minority 67.6%
Exact Tie Labour and Conservative 0.6%
Labour Minority 12.0%
Labour Majority 0.1%
UKIP more votes than Liberal Democrats 82.6%
Greens more votes than Liberal Democrats 0.1%
Greens more votes than UKIP 0.1%
Green > LD > UKIP (votes) 0.0%
LD > Green > UKIP (votes) 0.1%
LD > UKIP > Green (votes) 17.4%
UKIP > Green > LD (votes) 0.1%
UKIP > LD > Green (votes) 82.5%
UKIP get more votes than Labour 0%
SNP largest party in Scotland (seats) 99.2%

What are the main points of your forecast?

We identify the following events / features.

  • We continue to see a decline in the support for UKIP
  • Although the Conservatives lose seats to Labour, Labour lose a significant number in Scotland to the SNP, all but destroying their chance of a workable plurality. We are now treating the SNP surge in Scotland as consistent and lasting.
  • The Liberal Democrats will struggle to poll significantly above 12%. This will have a dramatic effect on their attempts to retain seats. Furthermore, recent constituency level polling indicates that the expected Liberal Democrat incumbency effect is not as strong as has been thought.

The key aspect of our forecast is uncertainty. We now show a variance of possibilities from a Labour majority to a Conservative majority. We still believe the most likely outcome is a Conservative minority government.

What improvements are you hoping to implement next?

At the moment the model isn’t taking into account polling in individual seats. As such data becomes richer and more available we will attempt to use it.

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