UK 2015 – Forecast – 30th March 3


This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

Forecast

  • Our forecast sees midpoint values of an equal number of seats for Conservatives and Labour
  • The SNP position continues to strengthen in Scotland (our probability of Labour being beaten in the seat count in Scotland is now 100%) and this dampens any expectation of a Labour plurality despite the Labour vote holding up.
  • The support for UKIP continues to fall
  • A greater amount of Welsh polling gives us a more robust view of the position in the Principality.

Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows.

Party Seats – Most Likely Outcome Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI
Conservatives 284 272 – 297 250 – 311
Labour 284 270 – 297 250 – 320
Liberal Democrats 28 25 – 31 17 – 39
UKIP 1 0 – 2 0 – 8
SNP 30 24 – 35 11 – 41
PC 3 1 – 5 0 – 8
Green 1 1 0 – 2
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 0 – 2 0 – 8
Irish 18 n/a n/a

Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for votes (mainland GB) and our centre point for seats is as follows.

Party Vote% – Mid Point Vote% 50% CI Vote% 95% CI
Conservatives 34.6 33.7 – 35.7 31.9 – 37.4
Labour 32.8 31.9 – 33.7 30.1 – 35.4
Liberal Democrats 10.0 9.3 – 10.6 8.1 – 12.0
UKIP 12.3 10.8 – 13.8 7.9 – 16.7
Green 5.2 4.2 – 6.0 2.6 – 7.6

Our probability of different outcomes is as follows.

Conservative Majority 0.1%
Conservative Minority 49.4%
Exact Tie Labour and Conservative 1.2%
Labour Minority 48.4%
Labour Majority 1.0%
UKIP more votes than Liberal Democrats 87.0%
Greens more votes than Liberal Democrats 0.3%
Greens more votes than UKIP 1.4%
Green > LD > UKIP (votes) 0.1%
LD > Green > UKIP (votes) 1.3%
LD > UKIP > Green (votes) 11.6%
UKIP > Green > LD (votes) 0.2%
UKIP > LD > Green (votes) 86.8%
UKIP get more votes than Labour 0%

What are the main points of your forecast?

We identify the following events / features.

  • We continue to see a decline in the support for UKIP
  • The chances of a working plurality for Labour are still damaged by the level of support for the SNP in Scotland
  • The Liberal Democrats will struggle to poll significantly above 12%. This will have a dramatic effect on their attempts to retain seats. Furthermore, recent constituency level polling indicates that the expected Liberal Democrat incumbency effect is not as strong as has been thought.
  • We are now incorporating constituency level analysis from a number of polls over the past six months

The key aspect of our forecast is uncertainty. We now show a variance of possibilities from a Labour majority to a Conservative majority. We still believe the most likely outcome is a Conservative minority government.


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