US Election Nowcast – 22nd October 2020 2


Current Nowcast

BidenTrump
376 (+26)160 (-26)
Changes from last Nowcast
Probability Trump Victory0.00%
Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes0.00%
Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes0.00%
Probability Tie0.00%
50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes148 – 170
Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)160 – 12.1% likely
Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)160 – 12.1% likely
Type of StateEC VotesStates
Safe Biden199
Safe Biden – Swing State95Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Nebraska 2 (1)
Strong Biden84Texas (38)
Florida (29)
Arizona (11)
Iowa (6)
Soft Biden
Tie
Soft Trump16Georgia (16)
Strong Trump32Ohio (18)
Missouri (10)
Alaska (3)
Maine 2 (1)
Safe Trump – Swing State35
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Louisiana (8)
Kansas (6)
Montana (3)
Safe Trump77
Based on Criteria Below

The last two days have been awful for Trump and if the election was happening today Biden would be heading for a Landslide. Trump is now trailing in key core states for him like Texas. Without large Electoral College wins like the Lone Star State he cannot hope to come close to retaining occupancy of the White House.

There are still a few States that need new polling to confirm their situation.

StateStatusProb Biden WinCommentary
AlabamaSafe Trump0%All polling points to Trump certainty
AlaskaStrong Trump20.3%No new polling
ArizonaStrong Biden
(Safe Biden)
91.9%Similar to elsewhere, a slight pickup in Trump support
FloridaSafe Biden
(Soft Biden)
100%Moving back firmly towards Biden
GeorgiaSoft Trump
(Strong Biden)
31.9%Clear signs of Trump recovering support
IowaStrong Biden
(Strong Trump)
70.3%Lots of new polling confirms strong Biden position
KansasSafe Trump0%New polling confirms Trump’s position
LouisianaSafe Trump0.6%No new polling
Maine 2Soft Trump35.1%No new polling
MichiganSafe Biden
(Strong Biden)
100%Biden back in strong control here
MinnesotaSafe Biden99.6%Continues to show good polling for Biden
MissouriSafe Trump
(Strong Trump)
0%New polling shows clear Trump lead
MontanaSafe Trump4.3%No new polling
Nebraska 2Safe Biden98.9%No new polling
NevadaSafe Biden
(Strong Biden)
87.9%Good recent polling for Biden
North CarolinaSafe Biden
(Strong Biden)
98.2%Good recent polling for Biden
OhioStrong Trump21.4%Three recent polls suggest small but clear lead for Trump
PennsylvaniaSafe Biden
(Strong Biden)
99.8%Eight polls in the last few days confirm that Biden has a clear lead
South CarolinaSafe Trump0.5%One new poll confirms safe Biden lead
TexasStrong Biden
(Soft Trump)
79.1%Texas is remarkably under-polled for such a crucial State. New polling indicates Biden taking a lead here.
VirginiaSafe Biden100%Continued strong polling for Biden
WisconsinSafe Biden
(Strong Biden)
98%Good recent polling for Biden confirms a large lead

Probability of Biden Winning State

Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy

Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.

Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?

As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.

What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?

We allocate a State a grade on the following basis

Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation

Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning

Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning

Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate

Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?

Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).

Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?

Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (3.7% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.


Leave a Reply to David Baker Cancel reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

2 thoughts on “US Election Nowcast – 22nd October 2020