Current Nowcast
| Biden | Trump |
|---|---|
| 376 (+26) | 160 (-26) |
| Probability Trump Victory | 0.00% |
| Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes | 0.00% |
| Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes | 0.00% |
| Probability Tie | 0.00% |
| 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes | 148 – 170 |
| Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) | 160 – 12.1% likely |
| Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution) | 160 – 12.1% likely |
| Type of State | EC Votes | States |
|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 199 | |
| Safe Biden – Swing State | 95 | Pennsylvania (20) Michigan (16) North Carolina (15) Virginia (13) Minnesota (10) Wisconsin (10) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Nebraska 2 (1) |
| Strong Biden | 84 | Texas (38) Florida (29) Arizona (11) Iowa (6) |
| Soft Biden | ||
| Tie | ||
| Soft Trump | 16 | Georgia (16) |
| Strong Trump | 32 | Ohio (18) Missouri (10) Alaska (3) Maine 2 (1) |
| Safe Trump – Swing State | 35 | Alabama (9) South Carolina (9) Louisiana (8) Kansas (6) Montana (3) |
| Safe Trump | 77 |
The last two days have been awful for Trump and if the election was happening today Biden would be heading for a Landslide. Trump is now trailing in key core states for him like Texas. Without large Electoral College wins like the Lone Star State he cannot hope to come close to retaining occupancy of the White House.
There are still a few States that need new polling to confirm their situation.
| State | Status | Prob Biden Win | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe Trump | 0% | All polling points to Trump certainty |
| Alaska | Strong Trump | 20.3% | No new polling |
| Arizona | Strong Biden (Safe Biden) | 91.9% | Similar to elsewhere, a slight pickup in Trump support |
| Florida | Safe Biden (Soft Biden) | 100% | Moving back firmly towards Biden |
| Georgia | Soft Trump (Strong Biden) | 31.9% | Clear signs of Trump recovering support |
| Iowa | Strong Biden (Strong Trump) | 70.3% | Lots of new polling confirms strong Biden position |
| Kansas | Safe Trump | 0% | New polling confirms Trump’s position |
| Louisiana | Safe Trump | 0.6% | No new polling |
| Maine 2 | Soft Trump | 35.1% | No new polling |
| Michigan | Safe Biden (Strong Biden) | 100% | Biden back in strong control here |
| Minnesota | Safe Biden | 99.6% | Continues to show good polling for Biden |
| Missouri | Safe Trump (Strong Trump) | 0% | New polling shows clear Trump lead |
| Montana | Safe Trump | 4.3% | No new polling |
| Nebraska 2 | Safe Biden | 98.9% | No new polling |
| Nevada | Safe Biden (Strong Biden) | 87.9% | Good recent polling for Biden |
| North Carolina | Safe Biden (Strong Biden) | 98.2% | Good recent polling for Biden |
| Ohio | Strong Trump | 21.4% | Three recent polls suggest small but clear lead for Trump |
| Pennsylvania | Safe Biden (Strong Biden) | 99.8% | Eight polls in the last few days confirm that Biden has a clear lead |
| South Carolina | Safe Trump | 0.5% | One new poll confirms safe Biden lead |
| Texas | Strong Biden (Soft Trump) | 79.1% | Texas is remarkably under-polled for such a crucial State. New polling indicates Biden taking a lead here. |
| Virginia | Safe Biden | 100% | Continued strong polling for Biden |
| Wisconsin | Safe Biden (Strong Biden) | 98% | Good recent polling for Biden confirms a large lead |
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (3.7% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.
Love it! Keep up the good work Peter… Tonight’s debate could maybe yet change things, but….
Yes, still got 12 days to go…..