Forecast #GE2017 – 15th May 2017


 

This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day.

Our forecast now includes a 95% confidence interval on the final % vote for each of the major parties, both for the UK as a whole AND each of the regions.

Key Features

  • There is clear evidence across all pollsters of an increase in support in England for Labour. We estimate that this is in the region of 3%.
  • There is evidence of an increase in Conservative support in Scotland at the expense of both the SNP and Labour
  • Wales appears to be neck and neck between Labour and the Conservatives
  • The Liberal Democrats are losing out in the Labour surge, with approximately a 0.5% drop in support for every 1% Labour picks up.

There is a growing pattern of different behaviour across the country as the General Election draws near. The last week of polling has seen clear evidence of an increase in Labour’s support in England, but this is not observed in Wales and Scotland. This increase in support is matched with greater uncertainty in the final Labour vote shares.

Our Northern Ireland forecast remains unchanged with no new opinion polls.

Our UK forecast now includes the 95% confidence interval of the projected share of the vote for the four main UK parties.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast
 Conservatives 46.0% (44.5% – 47.5%) 369 – 373
 Labour 30.4% (27.7% – 33.1%) 200 – 202
 SNP 4.2% 47 – 49
Liberal Democrats 8.3% (6.6% – 10.0%) 6 – 7
Plaid Cymru 0.7% 3 – 4
Green 2.5% 1
UKIP 5.0% (2.1% – 7.9%) 0
 Speaker 1
Northern Irish 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 96

This majority assumes 4 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.

We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast
SNP 44.6% 47 – 49
Conservatives 31.8% 9 – 11
Labour 14.3% 0
Liberal Democrats 5.4% 1
Greens 3.2%

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast
Conservatives 38.3% 18
Labour 35.3% 17 – 18
Plaid Cymru 15% 3 – 4
Liberal Democrats 6.4% 1
UKIP 2.4%
Greens 2.6%

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast
DUP 26.7% 9
Sinn Fein 25.7% 5
SDLP 12.4% 2
UUP 14.8 1
Independent 1
Greens 1.9%

 

 

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