Forecast #GE2017 – 10th May 2017


This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day.

Key Features

Polls have shifted back to the Conservatives over the past week, with particularly strong showings in English sub-samples. The SNP are improving in Scotland at the expense of Labour with the Conservatives also declining slightly. In Wales Labour is recovering slightly but we still project the Conservatives to win the highest vote share and the largest number of seats.

There continues to be no evidence of a Lib Dem recovery, and our forecast now includes the possibility that they will actually lose a seat.

Our UK and regional forecasts now includes the centre point of the projected share of the vote.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast
 Conservatives 45.7% 383 – 384
 Labour 27.8% 183 – 184
 SNP 4.4% 52 – 53
Liberal Democrats 9.1% 7 – 9
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 2 – 3
Green 3.0% 1
UKIP 6.4% 0
 Speaker 1
Northern Irish 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 122

This majority assumes 4 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.

We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast
SNP 46.6% 52 – 53
Conservatives 26.8% 4 – 6
Labour 16.9% 1
Liberal Democrats 5.0% 1
Greens 3.5%

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast
Conservatives 40.9% 19 – 20
Labour 35.6% 17
Plaid Cymru 10.5% 2 – 3
Liberal Democrats 6.7% 1
UKIP 4.4%
Greens 1.9%

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast
DUP 26.7% 9
Sinn Fein 25.7% 5
SDLP 12.4% 2
UUP 14.8 1
Independent 1
Greens 1.9%

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