Forecast #GE2017 – 19th May 2017


This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day.

Our forecast now includes a 95% confidence interval on the final % vote for each of the major parties, both for the UK as a whole AND each of the regions.

Key Features

  • There is continued evidence across all pollsters of an increase in support in England for Labour.
  • The SNP continues to lose support in Scotland
  • Wales appears to be neck and neck between Labour and the Conservatives
  • We are seeing strong evidence of a collapse in UKIP support across the country

There is a growing pattern of different behaviour across the country as the General Election draws near. Polling continues to provide evidence of an increase in Labour’s support in England and a collapse of UKIP’s polls ratings across the whole country. However, the increase in poll ratings for Labour is accompanied by large uncertainty in their actual level of support and whether their vote will turnout. Consequentially we have one of the largest possible vote ranges around their actual support. More polling should help to clarify this position.

The SNP is slowly losing ground in Scotland. mainly to the Conservatives.

Our Northern Ireland forecast remains unchanged with no new opinion polls.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast
 Conservatives 47.1% (45.3% – 48.9%) 374 – 377
 Labour 31.4% (24.9% – 37.9%) 200 – 204
 SNP 4.2% 45 – 47
Liberal Democrats 7.9% (5.4% – 10.4%) 4 – 8
Plaid Cymru 0.3% 0 – 2
Green 2.7% 0 – 2
UKIP 3.4% (0.4% – 6.4%) 0
 Speaker 1
Northern Irish 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 104

This majority assumes 4 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.

We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast
SNP 43.9% 45 – 47
Conservatives 31.6% 11 – 13
Labour 17.8% 0 – 1
Liberal Democrats 4.6% 0 – 2
Greens 1.2%

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast
Labour 42.0% 21 – 23
Conservatives 39.8% 15 – 17
Liberal Democrats 7.1% 0 – 2
Plaid Cymru 6.5% 0 – 2
UKIP 4.2%
Greens 0.2%

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast
DUP 26.7% 9
Sinn Fein 25.7% 5
SDLP 12.4% 2
UUP 14.8 1
Independent 1
Greens 1.9%

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