This is a point-in-time forecast for the Rochester and Strood by-election.
The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for each candidate’s vote share.
|Party||Mid Point||50% Intervals||95% Intervals|
|Conservative||31.9||30.3 – 33.4||27.4 – 36.3|
|UKIP||47.2||44.9 – 49.4||40.7 – 53.7|
|Labour||15.9||13.4 – 18.4||8.7 – 21.9|
The probability of certain events is as follows.
|UKIP > Con > Labour||99.97%|
|UKIP > Labour > Con||0.02%|
|Con > UKIP > Labour||0.01%|
|LD Retain Deposit||0.01%|
|Greens 4th, LD 5th||98.12%|
|Greens 3rd, Labour 4th||0.03%|
Since our last forecast we have firmed up our predictions for the Greens coming in 4th and the Liberal Democrats retaining their deposit. We are now registering a small likelihood of the Greens beating Labour into 3rd place.
For this forecast we ran 100,000 simulations of the Rochester and Strood by-election.