Rochester and Strood Forecast – 12th November 2014


This is a point-in-time forecast for the Rochester and Strood by-election.

The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for each candidate’s vote share.

Party Mid Point 50% Intervals 95% Intervals
Conservative 31.9 30.3 – 33.4 27.4 – 36.3
UKIP 47.2 44.9 – 49.4 40.7 – 53.7
Labour 15.9 13.4 – 18.4 8.7 – 21.9

The probability of certain events is as follows.

Event Probability
UKIP > Con > Labour 99.97%
UKIP > Labour > Con 0.02%
Con > UKIP > Labour 0.01%
LD Retain Deposit 0.01%
Greens 4th, LD 5th 98.12%
Greens 3rd, Labour 4th 0.03%

Since our last forecast we have firmed up our predictions for the Greens coming in 4th and the Liberal Democrats retaining their deposit. We are now registering a small likelihood of the Greens beating Labour into 3rd place.

For this forecast we ran 100,000 simulations of the Rochester and Strood by-election.

Leave a Reply