Rochester and Strood Forecast – 2nd November 2014


This is a point-in-time forecast for the Rochester and Strood by-election.

The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for each candidate’s vote share.

Party Mid Point 50% Intervals 95% Intervals
Conservative 30.9 29.4 – 32.4 26.5 – 35.4
UKIP 44.8 42.6 – 47.1 38.3 – 51.4
Labour 18.8 16.3 – 21.2 11.5 – 25.9

The probability of certain events is as follows.

Event Probability
UKIP > Con > Labour 99.72%
UKIP > Labour > Con 0.25%
Con > UKIP > Labour 0.04%
LD Retain Deposit 0.1%
Greens 4th, LD 5th 71.51%

We anticipate more polling in Rochester and Strood over the next few weeks which will allow us to firm up our forecast.

For this forecast we ran 100,000 simulations of the Rochester and Strood by-election.

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