Forecast #GE2017 – 30th April 2017 1


This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day.

Key Features

There is clear evidence of a small move back to Labour in England and Scotland since our last forecast. The consequential weakening of the Conservative position in Scotland means that we are lowering our forecast for Conservatives gains north of the border and we also now believe that on balance Labour may still retain a seat there as well. By contrast, we see a slight improvement for the Conservatives in Wales and they may take another seat in addition to those we were forecasting at the start of the week.

UK Forecast

Party Forecast
 Conservatives 367 – 373
 Labour 197 – 200
 SNP 46 – 51
Liberal Democrats 9 – 11
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1
 Speaker 1
Northern Irish 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 94

This majority assumes 4 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.

We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.

Scotland

Party Forecast
SNP 46 – 51
Conservatives 7 – 10
Liberal Democrats 1 – 2
Labour 0 – 1

Wales

Party Forecast
Conservatives 27 – 28
Labour 8 – 9
Plaid Cymru 3
Liberal Democrats 1

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