Forecast #GE2024 – 11th June 2024   Recently updated !


This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made no changes to our methodology since our last forecast.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a landslide”.

This forecast is likely to change once the final candidate lists are finalised.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour42.3% (+10.2%)468 – 491+268 to +291
Conservatives21.7% (-21.9%)91 – 108-280 to -263
Reform15.7% (+13.7%)3 – 5+3 to +5
Liberal Democrats9.2% (-2.3%)28 – 33+19 to +24
Green5.6% (+2.9%)0 – 1-1 to nc
SNP2.7% (-1.2%)15 – 18-33 to -30
Plaid Cymru0.4% (-0.0%)1 – 3-1 to +1
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc

Most likely result – Labour Landslide

England

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour44.0% (+10.0%)408 – 432+227 to +251
Conservatives23.1% (-24.1%)83 – 100-270 to -253
Reform16.9% (+14.9%)3 – 5+3 to +5
Liberal Democrats9.9% (-2.5%)25 – 30+18 to +23
Green5.9% (+2.9%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Speaker 1 nc

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour36.1% (+17.5%)30 – 34+29 to +33
SNP31.2% (-13.8%)15 – 18-33 to -30
Conservatives14.1% (-11.0%)4 – 7-2 to +1
Liberal Democrats 7.1% (-2.5%)2 – 4nc to +2
Reform7.2% (+6.7%)0nc
Greens4.3% (+3.3%)0nc

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour43.8% (+2.9%)26 – 29+8 to +11
Conservatives20.4% (-15.7%)1 – 4-11 to -8
Reform17.0% (+11.5%)0nc
Plaid Cymru9.0% (-0.9%)1 – 3-1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 5.2% (-0.8%)0nc
Greens4.6% (+3.5%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Sinn Fein32.2% (+9.5%)6 – 8nc to +1
DUP23.7% (-6.9%)5 – 7-2 to +1
Alliance17.3% (+0.5%)1 – 3nc to +2
UUP14.5% (+2.8%)0 – 2nc to +2
SDLP12.2% (-2.7%)1 – 3-1 to +1

Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.