This is our final forecast for the Welsh Senedd Election. This is an on the day forecast.
| Party | Const Vote | Const Seats | List Vote | Final Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 39.5% (+4.8%) | 23 (-4) | 30.1% (-1.4%) | 26 (-3) |
| Conservatives | 31.2% (+10.2%) | 11 (+5) | 25.8% (+7.0%) | 18 (+7) |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.7% (+1.2%) | 6 (n/c) | 18.9% (-0.9%) | 11 (-3) |
| Liberal Democrats | 4.9% (-1.8%) | 0 (-1) | 4.2% (-2.3%) | 1 (n/c) |
| Abolish Welsh Assembly | 2.2% (+2.2%) | 0 (n/c) | 6.9% (+6.9%) | 4 (+4) |
| Greens | 1.8% (-0.7%) | 0 (n/c) | 5.3% (+2.4%) | 0 (n/c) |
| UKIP | 1.6% (-10.9%) | 0 (n/c) | 1.9% (-6.5%) | 0 (-7) |
There have only been five polls in the past month, by only three firms, so this forecast should be viewed with a large degree of uncertainty.