This is our final forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is an on the day forecast and was adjusted at 1130am (slight chage to percentage forecasts but no change to seats).
| Party | Const Vote | Const Seats | List Vote | Final Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 49.0% (+2.5%) | 63 (+4) | 37.9% (-4.8%) | 64 (+1) |
| Conservatives | 21.4% (-0.6%) | 7 (n/c) | 22.0% (-0.9%) | 29 (-2) |
| Labour | 21.1% (-1.5%) | 0 (-3) | 17.2% (-1.9%) | 21 (-3) |
| Liberal Democrats | 6.7% (-1.1%) | 3 (-1) | 5.9% (+0.7%) | 4 (-1) |
| Greens | 1.5% (+0.9%) | 0 (n/c) | 10.6% (+4.0%) | 11 (+5) |
| Alba | 3.6% (+3.6%) | 0 |
Our on the day forecast shows the SNP agonisingly one seat short of an overall majority. Although there is a significant drop in support in the List vote for the SNP, but given their dominance in the FPTP constituencies it will have little overall impact on the final result. The Conservatives and Labour lose a few seats each (with Labour suffering in the constituencies against a resurgent SNP) whilst the Greens almost double their representation with a strong showing in the List vote.
The final result will be very close as there are a number of constituency seats which could go either way. Use the table below as results come in to see whether the forecast is accurate or not or whether the SNP does better or worse in the constituencies (which will determine whether it will have a majority or not).
| Seat | Prob Con Win | Prob Labour Win | Prob Lib Dem Win | Prob SNP Win | Most Likely Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeenshire West | 50.1% | 49.9% | Conservative Hold – Majority of 22 | ||
| East Lothian | 49.8% | 50.2% | SNP Gain – Majority of 110 | ||
| Edinburgh Southern | 49.7% | 50.3% | SNP Gain – Majority of 135 | ||
| Edinburgh Central | 50.4% | 49.6% | Conservative Hold – Majority of 166 | ||
| Edinburgh Western | 49.7% | 50.3% | SNP Gain – Majority of 197 | ||
| Ayr | 50.4% | 49.6% | Conservative Hold – Majority of 284 | ||
| Dumfrieshire | 51.2% | 48.8% | Conservative Hold – Majority of 634 | ||
| North East Fife | 51.2% | 48.8% | Lib Dem Hold – Majority of 633 | ||
| Dumbarton | 47.3% | 52.7% | SNP Gain – Majority of 1481 |