Scottish Parliament – Forecast 3rd May 2021 1


This is our latest forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is a forward looking forecast.

Party Const Vote Const Seats List Vote Final Seats
SNP 46.4% (-0.1%) 60 (+1) 36.0% (-5.7%) 62 (-1)
Conservatives 20.4% (-1.6%) 7 (n/c) 21.2% (-1.7%) 27 (-4)
Labour 21.0% (-1.6%) 2 (-1) 16.7% (-2.4) 20 (-4)
Liberal Democrats 7.8% (n/c) 4 (n/c) 7.0 (+1.8%) 6 (+1)
Greens 4.2% (+3.6%) 0 (n/c) 9.3% (+2.7%) 10 (+4)
Alba 5.6% (+5.6%) 4 (+4)

Our current forecast shows the smaller parties doing well and depriving the SNP of an overall majority. We predict that the new Alba party will do well enough in four regions (probably Central, Glasgow, HIghlands and Islands and West) to pick up one list seat in each of those areas. There is a significant drop in support in the List vote for the SNP, but given their dominance in the FPTP constituencies it will have little overall impact on the final result.

We will issue a new forecast on Thursday (polling day).


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One thought on “Scottish Parliament – Forecast 3rd May 2021

  • knotsuntangled

    Presumably the SNP and Greens can therefore form a comfortable majority? (Sadly – I don’t mind the Greens but don’t want the SNP breaking up the UK).