Forecast #GE2019 – 28th November 2019


This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New poll data from ComRes is included. Please note we do not include data from the YouGov MRP model or any other similar model.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory but lead narrowing”.

Our forecast shows a Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a working majority in the Commons. In contrast to previous nowcasts however we no longer believe this majority would be in three figures. Labour is slowly closing the gap on the Conservatives and the mid point for our seat range for the Tories has dropped by over 20 since the weekend.

The pattern over the past week is consistent with the “wobble” that occurs in most campaigns at this point where the governing party begins to lose support with around two weeks to go. The key observation to watch is whether, like in 2017, Labour continue to close the gap or whether the Conservatives can maintain the current level of lead. This will be clear by the weekend when the events of this week will be reflected in the polling.

In England we continue to see a strong performance for the Conservatives, especially in key target seats. Liberal Democrat support after appearing to rise again is now flat-lining. Labour support appears to be recovering slowly but firmly. Labour’s performance is the best in over a week, but still indicating a poor performance compared to 2017.

Although they now have a clear lead over the Brexit Party, we have downgraded the seat range for the Greens to 0-1. We do not expect them to win any other seats apart from Brighton Pavilion, but that seems fairly safe.

The Brexit Party continues to show extremely poor polling across the entire country. Now we have full confirmation of where the Brexit Party will be standing, we can adjust our final vote percentage on that basis. The overwhelming majority of Leave sentiment is now expressing a vote preference for the Conservatives and at this point we have high confidence that the Brexit Party will not be a significant force on December the 12th.

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In Scotland we continue to see evidence that Remain and Leave support is coalescing around the SNP and the Conservatives repectively. Labour support is now stabilising and contrary to our previous expectations they do not look like ending in fourth place in terms of both seats and votes. The SNP continue to recover from their slump earlier in the week and now look to make gains, but at the moment we do not believe they will not achieve a similar result to 2015.

Survey data in Wales continues to be volatile with Labour retaking the lead. The latest YouGov large survey of Wales has confirmed the gap between the parties, but placed the actual level of vote share higher. Significantly, this is our first Nowcast that shows Lib Dem support so low in the Principality that we do not expect them to win any seats.

In London we see evidence that the slump in recent days is being reversed. The Conservatives are still set to make gains, but will not end up with more than 30 seats as previous Nowcasts indicated. As before, the Liberal Democrats are performing poorly outside their target seats.

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Our Northern Ireland forecast is based the latest poll from Lucid Talk.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives43.7%365 – 368+50 to +53
 Labour30.8%192 – 201-70 to -61
 SNP3.5% 44 – 46+9 to +11
Liberal Democrats14.5%15 – 21+3 to +9
Brexit Party1.7%0
Plaid Cymru0.5%3 – 5-1 to +1
Green2.4%0 – 1-1 to 0
Independent0 – 1
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP41.4%44 – 46+9 to +11
Conservatives25.9%7 – 9-6 to -4
Liberal Democrats 14.2%3 – 6-1 to +2
Labour17.5%0 – 3-7 to -4
Greens0.5%
Brexit Party 0.4%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour41.0%23 – 26-5 to -2
Conservatives36.0%10 – 13+2 to +5
Plaid Cymru10.3%3 – 5-1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 7.3%0 0
Brexit Party4.9%  
Greens0.5%  

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour38.7%39 – 41-7 to -5
Conservatives35.5%26 – 29+5 to +8
Liberal Democrats21.7%4 – 7+1 to +4
Greens2.8%
Brexit Party1.1%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP28.4%6 – 9-4 to -1
Sinn Fein23.6%3 – 6-4 to -1
Alliance23.2%2 – 4+2 to +4
SDLP14.6%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality



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