This is our latest forecast for a potential November or December 2019 General Election in the UK. As the Brexit process appears to near a conclusion, we are coming back from our pause during the period when an election became less likely, to resume our forecasts.
The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.
What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls from ComRes poll and Opinium have been included.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Key Features
The overall summary of our forecast is “Narrow Conservative Victory”.
Polling since our last forecast shows that the Conservatives have moved back across most of England and Wales, whilst continuing to eat into the SNP vote share in Scotland.
Our forecast shows a Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a narrow working majority in the Commons. We continue see evidence of votes moving from the Brexit Party to the Conservatives as Leave electors consolidate around Boris Johnson.
In Scotland we expect the SNP to regain almost all their losses in 2017 to Labour and the Conservatives. The Conservatives continue to consolidate their position as the main challengers to the SNP.
The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales, though this has weakened over the past week. With a large sample YouGov poll to add to other data, it is clear that were an election to happen today Labour could not guarantee winning a majority of seats and would more than likely be pushed into second place on votes.
Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 34.4% (32.7% – 36.1%) | 323 – 332 | +6 to +15 |
| Labour | 25.2% (22.6% – 27.8%) | 208 – 210 | -54 to -52 |
| SNP | 3.5% | 48 – 51 | +13 to +16 |
| Liberal Democrats | 18.4% (15.5% – 21.3%) | 34 – 43 | +22 to +31 |
| Brexit Party | 11.4% (10.9% – 11.9%) | 0 – 3 | – to +3 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% | 3 – 5 | -1 to +1 |
| Green | 3.3% (2.2% – 4.4%) | 0 -2 | -1 to +1 |
| Independent | 0-2 | ||
| Speaker | 1 | – | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 |
Most likely result – Conservative Majority
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 41.5% | 48 – 51 | +13 to +16 |
| Conservatives | 21.6% | 1 -7 | -12 to -6 |
| Liberal Democrats | 13.8% | 3 – 6 | -1 to +2 |
| Labour | 14.3% | 0 – 2 | -7 to -5 |
| Brexit Party | 5.4% | ||
| Greens | 3.2% |
Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 27.3% | 16 – 22 | -12 to -6 |
| Conservatives | 28.3% | 13 – 19 | +5 to +11 |
| Liberal Democrats | 15.8% | 0 – 2 | 0 to +2 |
| Plaid Cymru | 12.6% | 3 – 5 | -1 to +1 |
| Brexit Party | 13.6% | ||
| Greens | 2.2% |
Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats
London
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 32.0% | 35 – 44 | -14 to -5 |
| Conservatives | 26.6% | 18 – 21 | -3 to 0 |
| Liberal Democrats | 30.3% | 11 – 17 | +8 to +14 |
| Brexit Party | 7.6% | ||
| Greens | 5.1% |
We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 29.1% | 8 – 10 | -2 to 0 |
| Sinn Fein | 25.0% | 5 – 7 | -2 to 0 |
| Alliance | 24.1% | 1 – 3 | +1 to +3 |
| UUP | 9.1% | 0 – 2 | 0 to +2 |
| SDLP | 8.0% | 0 | – |
| Independent | 1 | – |
Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality
Thanks for doing this Peter. My inner nerd loves this sort of thing!
How are you factoring in the independent Conservatives who had the whip removed?
For the moment I’m not – once the Election is called and we know who is and isn’t standing we can make a better assessment.