Forecast #GE2024 – 29th June 2024


This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – There has been no methodology change since yesterday.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Commentary

Reform appear to have plateaued just below 17% of the vote, with the Conservatives rising yet again as Labour dips below 41% for the first time in a week (and the last dip below 41% was due to the rise of Reform). As we wrote two a few days ago, just a few percentage points change from this low Conservative position will bring them healthily above 100 seats and within striking distance of their 1997 result. Whilst Labour is still on course for a decisive win, there is a lot to play for over the next five days.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour40.7% (+8.6%)458 – 486+258 to +486
Conservatives19.4% (-24.3%)70 – 88-301 to -283
Reform16.8% (+14.8%)1 – 17+1 to +17
Liberal Democrats11.0% (-0.6%)47 – 51+38 to +42
Green6.2% (+3.5%)0 – 2-1 to +1
SNP2.7% (-1.2%)16 – 19-32 to -29
Plaid Cymru0.6% (+0.1%)2 – 5nc to +3
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc

Most likely result – Labour Landslide

England

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour42.5% (+8.6%)403 – 434+222 to +253
Conservatives20.4% (-26.8%)60 – 79-293 to -274
Reform18.4% (+16.4%)1 – 17+1 to +17
Liberal Democrats11.7% (-0.7%)42 – 46+35 to +39
Green6.9% (+3.8%)0 – 2-1 to +1
Speaker 1 nc

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour36.0% (+17.5%)27 – 32+26 to +31
SNP31.7% (-13.3%)16 – 19-32 to -29
Conservatives13.6% (-11.5%)4 – 7nc to +1
Liberal Democrats8.9% (-0.7%)3 – 6+1 to +4
Reform6.9% (+6.4%)0nc
Green2.8% (+1.8%)0nc

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour38.9% (-2.0%)23 – 25+5 to +7
Conservatives21.6% (-14.5%)3 – 6-9 to -6
Reform15.6% (+10.2%)0nc
Plaid Cymru11.8% (+1.9%)2 – 5nc to +3
Liberal Democrats 7.4% (+1.4%)0nc
Green4.6% (+3.5%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Sinn Fein23.2% (+0.5%)6 – 8-1 to +1
DUP21.3% (-9.2%)5 – 7-3 to -1
Alliance17.6% (+0.8%)1 – 3nc to +2
UUP14.7% (+3.0%)0 – 2nc to +2
SDLP13.9% (-1.0%)1 – 3-1 to +1
TUV8.2% (new)0new

Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality

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