This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.
National Election Campaigning has resumed after the suspension following the events of the 22nd of May in Manchester. Our latest NowCast includes data from polls with fieldwork after the Manchester Bombing.
The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day. It is therefore a NowCast and is not the same as a formal prediction of what will happen on the 8th of June.
Our NowCast is based on the most recent polling data, where data tables have been issued.
Key Features
Change in Conservative Lead over Campaign
We continue to see evidence that the Labour surge is receding and that Conservative support is recovering. Our analysis indicates that Conservative support is now moving upwards in all three major regions (England, Scotland, Wales) with particular improvements in Scotland and Wales, where Tory support is back to the level of ten days ago. In Scotland in particular there is evidence that the increase in support for the Conservatives may take them within distance of winning many SNP seats.
We see evidence that the Liberal Democrats are being squeezed and may lose seats.
Our Northern Ireland forecast has been updated.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 44.8% (38.2% – 51.4%) | 363 – 374 | +33 to +44 |
| Labour | 33.2% (30.4% – 36.0%) | 206 – 216 | -25 to -15 |
| SNP | 3.8% | 40 – 45 | -16 to -11 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.5% (5.1% – 9.9%) | 3 – 6 | -6 to -3 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% | 2 – 4 | -1 to +1 |
| Green | 2.3% | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| UKIP | 5.4% (4.1% – 6.5%) | 0 – 1 | same to +1 |
| Speaker | 1 | ||
| Northern Irish | 18 |
Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 94
This majority assumes 5 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.
We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 41.6% | 40 – 45 | -16 to -11 |
| Conservatives | 30.3% | 12 – 17 | +11 to +16 |
| Labour | 23.3% | 0 – 4 | -1 to +3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 3.5% | 0 – 1 | -1 to same |
| Greens | 0.8% |
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 42.1% | 18 – 22 | +7 to +11 |
| Labour | 36.8% | 15 – 19 | -10 to -6 |
| Plaid Cymru | 11.7% | 2 – 4 | -1 to +1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 3.6% | 0 – 1 | -1 to same |
| UKIP | 3.8% | ||
| Greens | 1.8% |
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 28.5% | 7 – 12 | -1 to +4 |
| Sinn Fein | 27.0% | 3 – 6 | -1 to +2 |
| SDLP | 12.4% | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
| UUP | 14.8% | 0 – 2 | -2 to same |
| Alliance | 9.8% | 0 – 1 | same to +1 |
| Independent | 1 | same | |
| Greens | 1.0% |