This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.
Our Forecast is as follows.
| Probability of a Leave Vote | 12.59% |
| Most Likely Leave Vote % | 46.17% |
Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.
Two new polls in the past 24 hours indicate a slight reversal to last week’s trend away from Leave. There is still a clear difference between online and phone polling with online surveys much more likely to show support for Leave.