This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today.
Our Forecast is as follows.
| Probability of a Leave Vote | 21.44% |
| Most Likely Leave Vote % | 47.36% |
Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.
The current polling is short on data points but recent polls indicate a movement away from Leave. The above figures may change very quickly as the campaign progresses.