10 Days to Go.
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
- A number of polls over the past 24 hours are indicating a clear movement to the Conservatives from Labour
- We are now seeing evidence of a shoring up of the SNP vote in Scotland, a reversal of our previous observations. This is the main driver of our reduction in the forecast of Labour seats. Our analysis indicates a great detail of volatility in seat gains for SNP once their Scottish percentage vote share moves above the mid 40s.
- We now predict three seats for UKIP – Clacton, South Thanet and Thurrock
Changes indicated from Sunday’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 33.99% (+2.14%) | 275 (+4) |
| Labour | 31.98% (-1.74%) | 264 (-21) |
| UKIP | 13.87% (-2.26%) | 3 (+1) |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.95% (+0.67%) | 29 (-3) |
| Green | 5.53% (+0.10%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 4.09% (+0.53%) | 56 (+19) |
| PC | 0.40% (-0.06%) | 3 (nc) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.
You seem to be catching up finally with the consensus…
I’m finally seeing evidence of what others think is happening. Whether the evidence continues to be as strong in future days remains to be seen.
As we get nearer to May 7 my forecast should probably become more stable.