This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
- We continue to see clear evidence of a swing from the Conservatives to Labour. Each party’s support is down / up respectively by another percentage point over the past two days.
- We are beginning to see emerging evidence of a decline in support for the SNP in Scotland
- Crucially, despite the movement in overall support, constituency polling is helping to build a picture of better Conservative support in key marginals. Our seats forecast shows a two seat gain for the Conservatives despite a decline in national support.
- We show a current surge for Plaid Cymru in Wales. We are not confident that this will continue for the next two weeks, but we reflect it below.
Changes indicated from Thursday’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 33.70% (+1.00%) | 282 (-2) |
| Conservatives | 31.82% (-1.1%) | 269 (+2) |
| UKIP | 15.83% (-0.67%) | 2 (nc) |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.22% (-0.17%) | 30 (nc) |
| Green | 5.43% (+0.73%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 3.51% (-0.13%) | 42 (-2) |
| PC | 1.03% (+0.37%) | 5 (+2) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |
Specific Seat Probabilities
| Seat | Votes | Probabilities of Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Hallam | Nick Clegg (LD) : 18,002 Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 17480 Clegg Majority : 522 |
Nick Clegg (LD) : 51.7% Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 48.2% |
| South Thanet | Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 16,372 Will Scobie (Lab) : 13,891 Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 13,461 Farage Majority : 2,481 |
Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 56.4% Will Scobie (Lab) : 24.3% Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 19.3% |
Other seat probabilities can be added as requested.