We have updated our EWMA analysis on YouGov poll ratings. Key observations are as follows. UKIP has fallen to a new mean and shows early evidence of moving towards the lower bounds of the new range Labour is moving towards the high end of their new range The Liberal Democrats […]
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our forecast sees midpoint values of an equal number of seats for Conservatives and Labour The […]
In the past few weeks we have looked a methods of trying to track a significant change in the level of support for the main parties in the YouGov polls. Today we look at the use of EWMA Charts which are a form of statistical control used in engineering and […]
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our forecast sees a levelling in the Conservative midpoint position, but a clear reduction in their […]
On the Spectator website today, Mark Gettleson wrote that, This was a landmark week in this long election campaign. It was the first this year in which two pollsters (YouGov and Lord Ashcroft) each posted a Conservative lead outside of the margin of error. A 4 per cent lead for […]
Last week we examined the movement of support for all the main UK parties since the start of 2015. Since then we now have a complete set of polling data from YouGov for February so we can explore movement during that month. In the analysis below we have built a […]