We compared our final forecast with those made by other forecasting projects. We have taken the data from Elections Etc who have a list of all the forecasts they used in their project. We have only included forecasts that tried to estimate the seats for at least six parties (Con, […]
It’s no secret that in the 2017 General Elections the opinion polls missed the final result by a not insignificant margin. A number of different websites used data from opinion polls to try and forecast the outcome of the election and whilst all missed the Hung Parliament, some did better […]
A poll published today by Survation on behalf of the Liberal Democrats looks at voting intentions in the constituency of Cambridge, a key target seat for Jo Swinson’s party. The headline figures of a 9% lead for the Liberal Democrats seem encouraging for them, but is that what the poll […]
Chris Hanretty, Reader in Politics at UEA, wrote a piece yesterday on how the “2015 Other” voters (those who in 2015 didn’t vote for any of the main parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democat, UKIP – or didn’t vote at all) are splitting for Labour in recent polls. He looked […]
We have updated our EWMA analysis. The details are below. There is clear statistical evidence that UKIP have bounced back from their low of early to mid April Although we need one more day’s data to show it on the chart, the Conservatives have moved back up to a new […]
We have updated for mid-April our EWMA analysis on YouGov poll ratings. Key observations are as follows. We now include a “Conservative Lead” tracker (negative values indicate Labour lead) Although the Conservative poll ratings moved to a new mean at the start of April, they have now fallen back below […]
We have updated our EWMA analysis on YouGov poll ratings. Key observations are as follows. UKIP has fallen to a new mean and shows early evidence of moving towards the lower bounds of the new range Labour is moving towards the high end of their new range The Liberal Democrats […]
In the past few weeks we have looked a methods of trying to track a significant change in the level of support for the main parties in the YouGov polls. Today we look at the use of EWMA Charts which are a form of statistical control used in engineering and […]
On the Spectator website today, Mark Gettleson wrote that, This was a landmark week in this long election campaign. It was the first this year in which two pollsters (YouGov and Lord Ashcroft) each posted a Conservative lead outside of the margin of error. A 4 per cent lead for […]
Last week we examined the movement of support for all the main UK parties since the start of 2015. Since then we now have a complete set of polling data from YouGov for February so we can explore movement during that month. In the analysis below we have built a […]
