Updated EWMA Analysis – Mid April


We have updated for mid-April our EWMA analysis on YouGov poll ratings. Key observations are as follows.

  • We now include a “Conservative Lead” tracker (negative values indicate Labour lead)
  • Although the Conservative poll ratings moved to a new mean at the start of April, they have now fallen back below the levels seen in March
  • Labour continues to osscilate in the top half of their current band
  • The Lib Dems have moved to a new band around a mean of 8%
  • UKIP support appeared to reach a floor around 12.5% and has now begun to rise again, with one breach of the upper limit of their current band
  • The Greens fell to a new band below 5%, but have recovered in the past few days

For an explanation of these charts, see here.

EWMA Con Lead - 150418

EWMA Con - 150418

EWMA Labour - 150418

EWMA Lib Dem - 150418

EWMA UKIP 150418

EWMA Green - 150418

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