We have updated for mid-April our EWMA analysis on YouGov poll ratings. Key observations are as follows.
- We now include a “Conservative Lead” tracker (negative values indicate Labour lead)
- Although the Conservative poll ratings moved to a new mean at the start of April, they have now fallen back below the levels seen in March
- Labour continues to osscilate in the top half of their current band
- The Lib Dems have moved to a new band around a mean of 8%
- UKIP support appeared to reach a floor around 12.5% and has now begun to rise again, with one breach of the upper limit of their current band
- The Greens fell to a new band below 5%, but have recovered in the past few days
For an explanation of these charts, see here.