This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.
Our Forecast is as follows.
|Probability of a Leave Vote||12.59%|
|Most Likely Leave Vote %||46.17%|
Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.
Two new polls in the past 24 hours indicate a slight reversal to last week’s trend away from Leave. There is still a clear difference between online and phone polling with online surveys much more likely to show support for Leave.