8 Days to Go.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
- The vote surge towards the Conservatives continues. Constituency level polling indicates that this is not yet translating into seats.
- Evidence continues to come in of a high level of support for the SNP in Scotland
Changes indicated from Wednesday’s forecast.
|Conservatives||35.58% (+0.55%)||280 (-1)|
|Labour||33.31% (-0.51%)||266 (+3)|
|UKIP||11.77% (-0.79%)||2 (-1)|
|Liberal Democrats||8.94% (+0.62%)||23 (nc)|
|Green||4.89% (+0.19%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||4.34% (-0.15%)||55 (-1)|
|PC||0.72% (+0.07%)||4 (nc)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.