10 Days to Go.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
- A number of polls over the past 48 hours are indicating a clear movement to the Conservatives from Labour
- We are now seeing evidence of a shoring up of the SNP vote in Scotland, a reversal of our previous observations. This is the main driver of our reduction in the forecast of Labour seats. Our analysis indicates a great detail of volatility in seat gains for SNP once their Scottish percentage vote share moves above the mid 40s.
- We now predict three seats for UKIP – Clacton, South Thanet and Thurrock
Changes indicated from Monday’s forecast.
|Conservatives||35.12% (+2.14%)||279 (+4)|
|Labour||32.72% (+0.74%)||263 (-1)|
|UKIP||12.18 (-1.69%)||3 (nc)|
|Liberal Democrats||8.86% (-0.09%)||26 (-3)|
|Green||5.93% (+0.40%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||4.35% (+0.26%)||56 (nc)|
|PC||0.40% (-0.06%)||3 (nc)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.