11 Days to Go.
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
- We continue to see clear evidence of a swing from the Conservatives to Labour. Each party’s support is down / up respectively over the past few days.
- We are beginning to see emerging evidence of a decline in support for the SNP in Scotland
- The drop in support for the Conservatives is now indicating some more seat losses
- We continue to predict only two seats for UKIP – Clacton and South Thanet
Changes indicated from Saturday’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 33.72% (+0.02%) | 285 (+3) |
| Conservatives | 31.85% (+0.03%) | 271 (+2) |
| UKIP | 16.13% (+0.30%) | 2 (nc) |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.28% (+0.06%) | 32 (+2) |
| Green | 5.53% (+0.10%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 3.56% (+0.05%) | 37 (-5) |
| PC | 0.46% (-0.57%) | 3 (-2) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |
Specific Seat Probabilities
| Seat | Votes | Probabilities of Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Hallam | Nick Clegg (LD) : 18,030 Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 17,415 Clegg Majority : 615 |
Nick Clegg (LD) : 52.2% Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 47.7% |
| South Thanet | Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 16,454 Will Scobie (Lab) : 13,857 Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 13,438 Farage Majority : 2,597 |
Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 57.8% Will Scobie (Lab) : 23.5% Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 18.7% |
Other seat probabilities can be added as requested.