Forecast #GE2024 – 2nd May 2024

This is our latest forecast of 2024 for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 17 October 2024. An earlier or later election would affect our forecast.

Although our forecast is published on the same day as local elections in parts of the United Kingdom, it is not connected to those elections and uses no data from those elections.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made no methodological or reporting changes since our last forecast.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a comfortable win”

Our forecast shows Labour as the largest party in the Commons.

Please note that since this forecast is for an election in the late autumn, it reflects the polls today and what we think the change in support will be between now and then. It should not be viewed as a definitive prediction of the result later this year.

Our overall expectation continues to be highly favourable for Labour. Recent polling in the run up to the Local Elections shows increased support for the Conservatives in areas where polling is taking place today but a similar level of support to a fortnight ago in other places. This is inline with expectations of a small Conservative recovery before the General Election. However, we do not see an easy path to victory for the Conservatives between May and October.

At present we expect Labour to be the largest party across the whole of the UK, helped by winning back seats in Wales and Scotland from the Conservatives and the SNP respectively. We believe that Labour are certain to win enough seats to rule without the need for any support from any other party.

In Scotland the events of the past fortnight have seen a clear decline in SNP support. For the first time this year we are predicting a Labour majority north of the border. The Conservatives are also being squeezed as voters move to Labour.

In Wales Labour resume their dominant position after Conservative gains in 2019. We are expecting a loss of all of the 2019 gains here for the Conservatives. There is little sign of the Liberal Democrats winning any seats here, with their former constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire (last won in 2010 and then again in a by-election in 2019) being only a 1 in 3 chance of victory (and probably falling short by 2000 votes). There are some indications of Reform ending up in third place on vote share, but still no sign of them picking up any seats.

We have updated our Northern Ireland forecast after new polls and a change in expected polling date. We await a formal candidate list from True Unionist Voice before we include them in our forecast, but we note their strong showing in North Antrim in the 2022 Stormont election where they took a large proportion of the DUP Westminster vote, and we see this as their most likely place to pick up a seat.

We note a continuing large increase in the vote share for Reform, but have moved them back further this week. Recent polling indicates that those who currently express a preference for Reform are overwhelmingly likely to vote for the Conservatives if having to make another preference. We are tracking a number of constituencies where we believe another 5% or so in the national polls might put them within reach of having MPs. We have updated our watch list of seats where Reform have the best chance of winning to include Barnsley North, Hartlepool, Barnsley South, Doncaster North, Exmouth and Exeter East and Pontefract. The majority of these are former Red Wall seats, which aligns with our analysis that Reform are continuing to gain old Labour voters as well as new Conservative voters.

UK Forecast

Most likely result – Labour Working Majority

England

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats

Scotland

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Wales

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

London

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Most Likely Result – Too close to call between DUP Plurality and Sinn Fein Plurality