Forecast #GE2024 – 16th May 2024

This is our latest forecast of 2024 for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 17 October 2024. An earlier or later election would affect our forecast.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made no methodological or reporting changes since our last forecast.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a comfortable win”

Our forecast shows Labour as the largest party in the Commons.

Please note that since this forecast is for an election in the late autumn, it reflects the polls today and what we think the change in support will be between now and then. It should not be viewed as a definitive prediction of the result later this year.

Our overall expectation continues to be highly favourable for Labour. We have noticed a slight decline in support for Labour post the local elections, and this is to be expected.

At present we expect Labour to be the largest party across the whole of the UK, helped by winning back seats in Wales and Scotland from the Conservatives and the SNP respectively. We believe that Labour are certain to win enough seats to rule without the need for any support from any other party.

In Scotland Labour have taken a clear lead over the SNP in votes and seats. We continue to predict that the SNP will recover some support before the General Election, but in a similar manner to the predicted recovery of the Conservative vote nationally, we are monitoring to see if this effect does indeed take place. Although the Conservatives are also being squeezed as voters move to Labour, they may yet pick up seats from the SNP and actually increase their representation here.

In Wales Labour resume their dominant position after Conservative gains in 2019, but this continues to be a harder place to predict as sub-samples in polls are particularly low. We are expecting a loss of all of the 2019 gains here for the Conservatives. There is little sign of the Liberal Democrats winning any seats here, with their former constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire (last won in 2010 and then again in a by-election in 2019) being only a 1 in 3 chance of victory (and probably falling short by 2000 votes). There are some indications of Reform ending up in third place on vote share, but still no sign of them picking up any seats.

We have recently updated our Northern Ireland forecast after new polls and a change in expected polling date. We await a formal candidate list from True Unionist Voice before we include them in our forecast, but we note their strong showing in North Antrim in the 2022 Stormont election where they took a large proportion of the DUP Westminster vote, and we see this as their most likely place to pick up a seat.

We note a continuing large increase in the vote share for Reform, but have moved them back further this week. We continue to show the Liberal Democrats as down in votes but up in seats (won from the Conservatives), a similar phenomenon to the Tories north of the border with respect to the SNP.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour40.1% (+8.0%)347 – 363+147 to +163
Conservatives28.0% (-15.7%)218 – 235-153 to -136
Reform10.4% (+8.4%)0nc
Liberal Democrats10.1% (-1.5%)24 – 28+15 to +19
Green5.2% (+2.4%)0 – 1-1 to nc
SNP2.8% (-1.1%)17 – 20-31 to -28
Plaid Cymru0.7% (+0.2%)2 – 5nc to +3
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc

Most likely result – Labour Working Majority


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour41.8% (+7.9%)295 – 312+114 to +131
Conservatives29.9% (-17.4%)205 – 224-148 to -129
Reform11.5% (+9.5%)0nc
Liberal Democrats10.9% (-1.5%)21 – 25+14 to +18
Green5.6% (+2.5%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Speaker 1 nc

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour35.8% (+17.3%)28 – 30+27 to +29
SNP32.9% (-12.1%)17 – 20-31 to -28
Conservatives18.1% (-7.0%)5 – 8-1 to +2
Liberal Democrats 6.4% (-3.2%)2 – 4nc to +2
Reform4.0% (+3.6%)0nc
Greens2.7% (+1.7%)0nc


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour39.1% (-1.9%)21 – 24+3 to +6
Conservatives26.6% (-9.5%)4 – 8-8 to -4
Plaid Cymru14.1% (+4.2%)2 – 5nc to +3
Reform7.7% (+2.2%)0nc
Liberal Democrats 7.7% (+1.8%)0nc
Greens4.7% (+3.6%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour40.1% (-8.0%)50 – 53-2 to +1
Conservatives25.8% (-6.2%)18 – 21-1 to +3
Liberal Democrats9.2% (-5.7%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Reform17.0% (+15.7%)0nc
Greens7.7% (+4.6%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Sinn Fein34.9% (+12.1%)6 – 9-1 to +2
DUP26.3% (-4.3%)5 – 9-3 to +1
Alliance16.6% (-0.2%)0 – 3-1 to +2
UUP11.8% (+0.1%)0 nc
SDLP9.9% (-5.0%)1 – 3-1 to +1

Most Likely Result – No Party with Majority – Likely Sinn Fein Plurality

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