This is our first Forecast. From today until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday.
With three days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win unattainable. Although there is some small evidence of Trump continue to tighten the race in some States, it is not enough to pose a serious challenge to the Democrats’ hopes of regaining the White House. Unless something significant happens (or the polls are incredibly wrong), we do not expect our forecast to change much over the next few days.
|Probability Trump Victory||0.00%|
|Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes||0.13%|
|Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes||0.56%|
|50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes||169 – 196|
|Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)||163 – 7.0% likely|
|Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)||181 – 3.6% likely|
|Type of State||EC Votes||States|
|Safe Biden – Swing State||74||Pennsylvania (20)|
New Hampshire (4)
Nebraska 2 (1)
|Strong Biden||96||Florida (29)|
North Carolina (15)
Maine 2 (1)
|Soft Biden||6||Iowa (6)|
|Strong Trump||51||Texas (38)|
|Safe Trump – Swing State||35||Alabama (9)|
South Carolina (9)
|State||Status||Prob Biden Win||Commentary|
|Alabama||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Alaska||Strong Trump||12.2%||No new polling|
|Arizona||Strong Biden||77.5%||Should be Biden but Trump may produce an upset|
|Florida||Strong Biden||80.6%||Recent polling shows greater uncertainty in Florida|
|Georgia||Strong Biden||81.0%||Biden looking good in Georgia, traditionally a GOP state|
|Iowa||Soft Biden||65.6%||Good but not safe for Biden|
|Kansas||Safe Trump||1.1%||No new polling|
|Louisiana||Safe Trump||1.7%||Very safe for Trump|
|Maine 2||Soft Biden||62.1%||Recent polls indicates tighter race|
|Michigan||Safe Biden||99.9%||Clear signs that Biden has strong lead, but Trump is increasing support|
|Minnesota||Safe Biden||95.6%||Safe Biden, but he is slowly losing support|
|Missouri||Strong Trump||9.8%||Should be Trump but requires new polling to confirm|
|Montana||Safe Trump||0%||New polling confirms safe Trump|
|Nebraska 2||Safe Biden||99.3%||No new polling|
|Nevada||Safe Biden||100%||Recent polling confirms Safe Biden|
|North Carolina||Soft Biden||65.1%||Heavily polled in last few days. Not certain for Biden with both candidates doing well.|
|Ohio||Strong Biden||71.4%||For such a key state there is a desperate paucity of polling! All evidence is Biden is doing well.|
|Pennsylvania||Safe Biden||100%||Currently Safe Biden but momentum here continues to be with Trump so may yet move in last few days.|
|South Carolina||Safe Trump||0%||New polling confirms clear Trump lead|
|Texas||Strong Trump||8.4%||Continued good polling for Trump but still might change in last few days|
|Virginia||Safe Biden||100%||Continued strong polling for Biden|
|Wisconsin||Safe Biden||98.8%||Continued clear water for Biden|
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (4.8% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.