Current Nowcast
| Biden | Trump |
|---|---|
| 356 (+16) | 180 (-16) |
This is our final Nowcast. From tomorrow we will provide a Forecast for what we expect the result to be on Polling Day.
| Probability Trump Victory | 0.00% |
| Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes | 0.02% |
| Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes | 0.25% |
| Probability Tie | 0.00% |
| 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes | 166 – 192 |
| Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) | 163 – 8.3% likely |
| Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution) | 180 – 4.5% likely |
| Type of State | EC Votes | States |
|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 199 | |
| Safe Biden – Swing State | 85 | Michigan (16) Virginia (13) Arizona (11) Minnesota (10) Wisconsin (10) New Hampshire (4) Nebraska 2 (1) |
| Strong Biden | 107 | Florida (29) Pennsylvania (20) Ohio (18) Georgia (16) North Carolina (15) Nevada (6) Maine 2 (1) |
| Soft Biden | 6 | Iowa (6) |
| Tie | ||
| Soft Trump | ||
| Strong Trump | 51 | Texas (38) Missouri (10) Alaska (3) |
| Safe Trump – Swing State | 35 | Alabama (9) South Carolina (9) Louisiana (8) Kansas (6) Montana (3) |
| Safe Trump | 77 |
If Trump was hoping for momentum into Polling Day then he has run out of fuel for it.
Although firming up in Texas, elsewhere Trump is falling back. Ohio and Georgia are now firm Biden territory. Elsewhere no momentum is in evidence for Trump. Something dramatic needs to happen for Trump to have a fighting chance on Tuesday.
| State | Status | Prob Biden Win | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe Trump | 0% | One new poll confirms strong Trump lead |
| Alaska | Strong Trump | 9.2% | One new poll shows movement to Trump |
| Arizona | Safe Biden (Strong Biden) | 97.8% | Has moved clearly back to Biden over past few days |
| Florida | Strong Biden (Strong Trump) | 86.7% | Good recent polling shows Biden back in control |
| Georgia | Strong Biden | 87.9% | Continued good recent polling for Biden |
| Iowa | Soft Biden (Strong Biden) | 55.4% | Biden losing ground |
| Kansas | Safe Trump | 1.3% | No new polling |
| Louisiana | Safe Trump | 1.7% | Some slight movement to Biden, but not significant yet |
| Maine 2 | Strong Biden (Safe Biden) | 69.0% | Recent poll indicates tighter race |
| Michigan | Safe Biden | 97.5% | New polling shows small move to Trump, but still safe Biden |
| Minnesota | Safe Biden | 100% | Continues to show good polling for Biden |
| Missouri | Safe Trump | 0% | No new polling |
| Montana | Safe Trump | 0% | New polling confirms safe Trump |
| Nebraska 2 | Safe Biden | 98.9% | No new polling |
| Nevada | Safe Biden | 100% | New polling confirms Safe Biden |
| North Carolina | Strong Biden (Soft Biden) | 85.9% | Back to Strong Biden |
| Ohio | Strong Biden (Strong Trump) | 71.2% | New polling suggests Biden is doing well here, but this State is still desperately under-surveyed. |
| Pennsylvania | Strong Biden | 94.6% | Holding steady just outside Safe Biden territory |
| South Carolina | Safe Trump | 0% | New polling confirms clear Trump lead |
| Texas | Strong Trump (Soft Trump) | 11.9% | Continued good polling for Trump |
| Virginia | Safe Biden | 100% | Continued strong polling for Biden |
| Wisconsin | Safe Biden | 100% | Continued clear water for Biden |
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (1.7% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.
Hi Peter, the Guardian today seems to suggest Texas may be much closer than your Biden winning per cent possibility seems to suggest. What do you reckon?
Haven’t read it, but wouldn’t be surprised if they’re basing it on one single poll (which is not to how analyse a state).