|340 (-13)||196 (+13)|
|Probability Trump Victory||0.01%|
|Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes||0.42%|
|Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes||3.05%|
|50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes||178 – 211|
|Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)||210 – 11.9% likely|
|Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)||196 – 3.0% likely|
|Type of State||EC Votes||States|
|Safe Biden – Swing State||75||Michigan (16)|
New Hampshire (4)
Nebraska 2 (1)
Maine 2 (1)
|Strong Biden||76||Pennsylvania (20)|
North Carolina (15)
|Soft Trump||67||Texas (38)|
|Strong Trump||31||Ohio (18)|
|Safe Trump – Swing State||35||Alabama (9)|
South Carolina (9)
We continue to see the expected tightening in the Nowcast as we approach polling day. Trump is up 13 Electoral College votes in two days.
Biden is still in a good lead but he can no longer just rely on his safe seats. Texas and Florida appear to be moving to Trump and there are even signs of movement in places like Pennsylvania. Biden continues though to have an incredibly strong position in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota as well as in Arizona and Nevada. If Trump begins to make inroads in these five states then he might be able to make a realistic challenge.
|State||Status||Prob Biden Win||Commentary|
|Alabama||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Alaska||Strong Trump||20.3%||No new polling|
|94.1%||Has moved back to Biden|
|29.7%||Continues to poll well for Trump|
|79.4%||Good recent polling for Biden|
|90.3%||Good recent polling for Biden|
|Kansas||Safe Trump||1.3%||No new polling|
|Louisiana||Safe Trump||1.7%||Some slight movement to Biden, but not significant yet|
|Maine 2||Safe Biden||99.7%||New Colby poll confirms good Biden lead|
|Michigan||Safe Biden||100%||Biden still in strong control here|
|Minnesota||Safe Biden||100%||Continues to show good polling for Biden|
|Missouri||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Montana||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Nebraska 2||Safe Biden||98.9%||No new polling|
|100%||Moves to Safe Biden with two new polls|
|North Carolina||Soft Biden|
|65.5%||New polls show race tightening here|
|Ohio||Strong Trump||16.1%||No new polling|
|94.0%||Slight movement to Trump – next few polls will confirm momentum (or not)|
|South Carolina||Safe Trump||0%||New polling confirms clear Trump lead|
|35.2%||Good new polling for Trump|
|Virginia||Safe Biden||100%||Continued strong polling for Biden|
|Wisconsin||Safe Biden||100%||Continued clear water for Biden|
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (1.7% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.