Forecast #GE2019 – 12th December 2019

This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK. This forecast was updated at 1330 GMT.

Important – This is an on the day NOWCAST for this election.

It is important to note that our on the day forecast does not include any information from any ballots actually cast and should not be viewed as either an exit poll OR an indication of how anyone has actually voted.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – The final round of opinion polls has been published and we have incorporated all the available data.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory with double figure majority”

Our forecast shows a Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a working majority in the Commons. Our forecast today however represents a further small down scaling of the size of the Conservative lead as evidence continues to emerge that Labour support is rising in England in the last few days of the campaign. We have decreased our seat forecast for the Conservatives since this morning.

In England we see a further rise in support for Labour, but in the last 24 hours the data indicates that the Conservatives have squeezed some of the rising Brexit Party support and this is sufficient for them to maintain a similar seat forecast from yesterday. As we have indicated before, the ability of the Conservatives to get Brexit Party voters to vote for them instead in key Conservative / Labour marginals may be the key to the size of the Conservative majority. We have increased our seat forecast for Labour since this morning and also narrowed the expected range.

The Liberal Democrats continue to be squeezed across the country, in particular in England outside of their key targets. Whilst they will undoubtably increase their vote share and seats and may be able to “scalp” a few names, overall it will be a disappointing night for Jo Swinson’s party. We have widened the expected seat range for the Liberal Democrats since this morning and moved the middle point up a small amount.

The Green Party has a clear lead over the Brexit Party in vote share, but we do not expect them to win any other seats apart from Brighton Pavilion which is very secure.

In Scotland we continue to see evidence that Remain and Leave support is coalescing around the SNP and the Conservatives repectively. Our forecast shows the SNP holding steady since yesterday and we believe they will end up around 46 seats – an improvement from 2017 but nowhere near the success of 2015. This is an increase of 1% in vote share and 1 seat since this morning. Labour is now falling back again. The Conservatives will see modest losses, but will be in a clear second place in seats and votes. We have moved the Conservative seat range down by 1 since this morning, despite them being up 0.3% in vote share. This is indicative as to how many seats at this level of vote share are Conservative / SNP marginals.

In Wales there is very good evidence of a late swing to the Conservatives, but not enough to win a plurality in votes or seats. The last updates to the forecast have moved our prediction from a Labour Plurality to Too Close to Call. We now believe there is a significant probability that the Conservatives will come first in Wales in both votes and seats. Crucially, the Plaid Cymru position continues to strengthen and we now have a seat range forecast that sees them probably holding onto the four seats they currently have (though Ceredigion looks very close).

Despite an improved vote share for the Liberal Democrats in Wales, we now forecast them losing their only seat (Brecon and Radnorshire, which they won in a byelection).

In London we expect Labour to see a dramatic fall in votes but end up with roughly the same number of seats. The Conservatives will retain their vote share and may increase by a few seats. If the Conservatives can squeeze the Brexit Party vote in London then they may have more of an impact on the Labour position. There are no significant changes since this morning.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based the latest poll from Lucid Talk.

We will update this forecast through the day as more polling data is available.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives42.9% (+0.6%)350 – 359+33 to +42
 Labour32.3% (-7.6%)206 – 209-56 to -53
 SNP3.6% (+0.7%)44 – 46+9 to +11
Liberal Democrats12.3% (+4.9%)15 – 21+3 to +9
Brexit Party2.8%0
Plaid Cymru0.5% (-0.2%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Green2.7% (+1.1%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Independent0 – 1
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives45.7% (+0.2%)329 – 332+33 to +36
 Labour34.4% (-7.5%)185 – 188-42 to -39
Liberal Democrats13.3% (+5.5%)11 – 17+3 to +9
Brexit Party2.8%0
Green3.0% (+1.1%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Independent0 – 1
Speaker 1 –

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of seats


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP44.1% (+7.2%)45 – 47+10 to +12
Conservatives28.0% (-0.6%)7 – 9-6 to -4
Liberal Democrats 8.5% (+1.9%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Labour16.6% (-9.3%)0 – 2-7 to -5
Greens1.4% (+1.2%)
Brexit Party 1.5%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour38.4% (-10.6%)17 – 23-11 to -5
Conservatives38.3% (+4.7%)13 – 19+5 to +11
Plaid Cymru9.3% (-1.1%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 7.1% (+2.6%)00
Brexit Party6.1%  
Greens0.9% (+0.6%)  

Most Likely Result – Too Close to Call


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour46.0% (-9.5%)45 – 48-1 to +2
Conservatives37.0% (+3.9%)22 – 24+1 to +3
Liberal Democrats13.3% (+4.5%)2 – 5-1 to +2
Greens2.2% (+0.4%)
Brexit Party1.5%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP28.4%6 – 9-4 to -1
Sinn Fein23.6%3 – 6-4 to -1
Alliance23.2%2 – 4+2 to +4
SDLP14.6%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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