Forecast #GE2019 – 10th December 2019


This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

Important – This is a FORWARDCAST for this election, predicting the result of the election on the 12th, rather than the result of an election on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polling from ICM and YouGov

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory with double figure majority”

Our forecast shows a Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a working majority in the Commons. Our forecast today however represents a down scaling of the size of the Conservative lead as evidence emerges that Labour support is rising in England in the last few days of the campaign.

In England we continue to see a strong performance for the Conservatives, especially in key target seats. Liberal Democrat support after appearing to rise again is now falling. Labour support after falling to 30% now appears to be rising again and we anticipate them winning around 200 seats.

The Green Party has a clear lead over the Brexit Party in vote share, but we do not expect them to win any other seats apart from Brighton Pavilion which is very secure.

The Brexit Party is now showing a rise in support over the last few days of the campaign. The overwhelming majority of Leave sentiment is still expressing a vote preference for the Conservatives and at this point we have high confidence that the Brexit Party will not be a significant force on December the 12th, but the next two days of polls will confirm whether in fact the Brexit Party will eat into the Conservative vote in a manner that damages them.

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In Scotland we continue to see evidence that Remain and Leave support is coalescing around the SNP and the Conservatives repectively. We expect to see the SNP winning around 46 seats – an improvement from 2017 but nowhere near the success of 2015. Labour is now falling back again. The Conservatives will see modest losses, but will be in a clear second place in seats and votes.

In Wales we are downgrading our forecast for the Conservatives and we now think it unlikely that they will challenge Labour for first place in seats or votes. The Liberal Democrats could also pick up 1 or two seats. A large area of uncertainty lies around the exact level of support for Plaid Cymru. The latest YouGov Welsh Monitor poll has increased our forecast for the PC vote share and we now have them at around 2 to 4 seats.

In London we expect Labour to see a dramatic fall in votes but end up with roughly the same number of seats. The Conservatives will retain their vote share and may increase by a few seats. If the Conservatives can squeeze the Brexit Party vote in London then they may have more of an impact on the Labour position.

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Our Northern Ireland forecast is based the latest poll from Lucid Talk.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives43.2% (+0.9%)358 – 367+41 to +50
 Labour31.0% (-9.0%)195 – 204-67 to -58
 SNP3.7% (+0.7%)45 – 47+10 to +12
Liberal Democrats12.6% (+5.2%)18 – 20+6 to +8
Brexit Party3.4%0
Plaid Cymru0.4% (-0.2%)2 – 4-2 to -0
Green2.9% (+1.3%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Independent0 – 1
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP43.1% (+6.2%)45 – 47+10 to +12
Conservatives27.2% (-1.4%)6 – 9-7 to -4
Liberal Democrats 11.1% (+4.3%)3 – 6-1 to +2
Labour17.3% (-9.8%)0 – 2-7 to -5
Greens0.4% (+0.2%)
Brexit Party 1.0%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour41.7% (-7.3%)23 – 26-5 to -2
Conservatives36.8% (+3.2%)10 – 13+2 to +5
Plaid Cymru8.1% (-2.3%)2 – 4-2 to -0
Liberal Democrats 6.2% (+1.7%)0 – 20 to +2
Brexit Party5.2%  
Greens2.0% (+1.7%)  

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour43.8% (-11.7%)45 – 48-1 to +2
Conservatives34.0% (+0.9%)22 – 24+1 to +3
Liberal Democrats14.4% (+5.6%)2 – 5-1 to +2
Greens4.6% (+2.8%)
Brexit Party3.2%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP28.4%6 – 9-4 to -1
Sinn Fein23.6%3 – 6-4 to -1
Alliance23.2%2 – 4+2 to +4
SDLP14.6%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality



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