Forecast #GE2019 – 7th December 2019 4


This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

Important – This is our last NOWCAST for this election. From tomorrow we will move to a proper forward looking forecast where we will predict the result of the election on the 12th, rather than the result of an election on the day of the forecast.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polling from MORI

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory with good chance of landslide”.

Our forecast shows a Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a large working majority in the Commons. Due to improvements in the Conservative postion over the past few days, we now believe that this majority may be into three figures.

Conservative seat estimates are now rising again as new polls indicate the gap between the parties widening.

In England we continue to see a strong performance for the Conservatives, especially in key target seats. Liberal Democrat support after appearing to rise again is now falling. Labour support now appears to have peaked and we forecast a poor performance compared to 2017.

Although they now have a clear lead over the Brexit Party, we have downgraded the seat range for the Greens to 0-1. We do not expect them to win any other seats apart from Brighton Pavilion, but that seems fairly safe.

The Brexit Party continues to show extremely poor polling across the entire country. Now we have full confirmation of where the Brexit Party will be standing, we can adjust our final vote percentage on that basis. The overwhelming majority of Leave sentiment is now expressing a vote preference for the Conservatives and at this point we have high confidence that the Brexit Party will not be a significant force on December the 12th.

In Scotland we continue to see evidence that Remain and Leave support is coalescing around the SNP and the Conservatives repectively. We expect to see the SNP winning around 47 seats – an improvement from 2017 but nowhere near the success of 2015. Labour is now falling back again.

In Wales we see evidence again that Labour may not win a majority of seats. After the strong YouGov poll earlier, recent subsamples indicate a downward trend in Labour support in the Principality. Plaid Cymru support has weakened over the past week and we forecast losses next week.

In London recent good performance for Labour is now receding. We see good evidence that the Conservatives may gain few seats. As before, the Liberal Democrats are performing poorly outside their target seats and their seat range has fallen since yesterday.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based the latest poll from Lucid Talk.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives44.7% (+2.4%)371 – 383+54 to +66
 Labour31.2% (-8.8%)186 – 192-76 to -70
 SNP3.8% (+0.8%)46 – 48+11 to +13
Liberal Democrats13.3% (+5.9%)13 – 19+1 to +7
Brexit Party1.5%0
Plaid Cymru0.3% (-0.2%)0 – 2-4 to -2
Green2.2% (+0.6%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Independent0 – 1
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP44.6% (+7.7%)46 – 48+11 to +13
Conservatives26.2% (-2.4%)6 – 8-7 to -5
Liberal Democrats 13.4% (+6.6%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Labour15.4% (-11.7%)0 – 2-7 to -5
Greens0.2% (nc)
Brexit Party 0.1%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour40.5% (-8.5%)19 – 25-9 to -3
Conservatives38.8% (+5.2%)13 – 19+5 to +11
Plaid Cymru5.7% (-4.7%)0 – 2-4 to -2
Liberal Democrats 8.0% (+3.5%)0 – 20 to +2
Brexit Party6.4%  
Greens0.5% (+0.2%)  

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour43.1% (-12.4%)44 – 46-2 to 0
Conservatives33.0% (-0.1%)22 – 25+1 to +4
Liberal Democrats18.2% (+9.4%)3 – 60 to +3
Greens3.9% (+2.1%)
Brexit Party1.8%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP28.4%6 – 9-4 to -1
Sinn Fein23.6%3 – 6-4 to -1
Alliance23.2%2 – 4+2 to +4
SDLP14.6%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality




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4 thoughts on “Forecast #GE2019 – 7th December 2019

  • Mike Lermer

    All other polls I have seen over the past few days have shown both the Conservative lead & Conservative seat projections declining (with suggestions that a hung Parliament is a distinct possibility), but yours shows both increasing (with a distinct possibility of a Conservative landslide)! How do you explain this discrepancy? Thanks.

    • Forecast UK - Peter Post author

      Not all the polls show a declining lead. It’s also wrong to compare our daily nowcast movement with a poll that reports once a week. Our current seat range is lower than it was two weeks ago, which fits with a small fall in the MRP projection from one firm.

      On top of that we’re more interested in the trend of a party’s support than the single polls.

      • Mike Lermer

        Thanks for your reply & I note what you say about the current seat range being lower than it was 2 weeks ago, but I was really focusing on the past week in which, for example, Electoral Calculus’ predictions of the likely Cons majority have declined from 34 to 28 to 20 in their latest poll, whereas you are suggesting a possible majority of over 100 (which I see is also predicted by your latest forecast today). There seems to be a world of difference between a majority of 20 (which could easily shade into hung parliament territory) versus a landslide of over a 100 seats, & I just wondered why you thought your nowcasts / forecast were more accurate? Also, if your prediction is true, the Conservatives will be taking around 50 Labour held seats; what evidence do you have for this? Most of the seat by seat studies that I have seen of the Conservative target seats indicate that the Conservatives will have difficulty in taking more than 15 – 20 Labour seats, partly because of the intervention of the Brexit Party which is splitting the Leave vote. Do you have evidence that the Brexit Party vote will just collapse, or do you think it possible that some BXP candidates will tell their supporters to vote Conservative? Thanks.

        • Forecast UK - Peter Post author

          Hi Mike,

          All I can say is that I’m working off the polls together with some statistical analysis. Of all the forecasts done last time, I came the closest even with the polling error, so I guess the proof will be in the pudding on the 13th!