Forecast #GE2019 – 5th December 2019


This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polling from YouGov and ComRes

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory with lead stabilising”.

Our forecast shows a Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a working majority in the Commons. Due to improvements in the Conservative postion over the past few days, we now believe that this majority may be into three figures.

Conservative seat estimates are now rising again as new polls indicate the gap between the parties beginning to widen again.

In England we continue to see a strong performance for the Conservatives, especially in key target seats. Liberal Democrat support after appearing to rise again is now falling. Labour support now appears to have peaked and we forecast a poor performance compared to 2017.

Although they now have a clear lead over the Brexit Party, we have downgraded the seat range for the Greens to 0-1. We do not expect them to win any other seats apart from Brighton Pavilion, but that seems fairly safe.

The Brexit Party continues to show extremely poor polling across the entire country. Now we have full confirmation of where the Brexit Party will be standing, we can adjust our final vote percentage on that basis. The overwhelming majority of Leave sentiment is now expressing a vote preference for the Conservatives and at this point we have high confidence that the Brexit Party will not be a significant force on December the 12th.

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In Scotland we continue to see evidence that Remain and Leave support is coalescing around the SNP and the Conservatives repectively. We expect to see the SNP winning around 45 seats – an improvement from 2017 but nowhere near the success of 2015. There is some evidence that Labour is beginning to recover and may yet save up to four of their current seats.

In Wales we see evidence again that Labour may not win a majority of seats. After the strong YouGov poll earlier, recent subsamples indicate a downward trend in Labour support in the Principality. Plaid Cymru support has weakened over the past week and we forecast losses next week.

In London we now see Labour opening up a clear lead over the Conservatives. This is now the only part of the country where we forecast Labour to do better than in 2017. As before, the Liberal Democrats are performing poorly outside their target seats and their seat range has fallen since yesterday.

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Our Northern Ireland forecast is based the latest poll from Lucid Talk.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives43.8%365 – 380+48 to +63
 Labour32.3%188 – 197-74 to -65
 SNP3.5% 44 – 47+9 to +12
Liberal Democrats13.4%14 – 20+2 to +8
Brexit Party1.9%0
Plaid Cymru0.4%1 – 4-3 to 0
Green2.2%0 – 1-1 to 0
Independent0 – 1
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP41.5%44 – 47+9 to +12
Conservatives26.2%7 – 9-6 to -4
Liberal Democrats 14.7%3 – 6-1 to +2
Labour16.7%0 – 2-7 to -5
Greens0.8%
Brexit Party 0.2%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour39.9%18 – 24-10 to -4
Conservatives38.4%14 – 17+6 to +9
Plaid Cymru7.2%1 – 4-3 to 0
Liberal Democrats 7.6%0 – 20 to +2
Brexit Party6.4%  
Greens0.5%  

Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour45.4%47 – 53+1 to +7
Conservatives30.7%18 – 20-3 to -1
Liberal Democrats18.5%1 – 7-2 to +4
Greens3.3%
Brexit Party2.2%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP28.4%6 – 9-4 to -1
Sinn Fein23.6%3 – 6-4 to -1
Alliance23.2%2 – 4+2 to +4
SDLP14.6%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality



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