Forecast #GE2019 – 14th November 2019 2



This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – More polling since our last post allows us to update our forecast. In particular a Lucid Talk poll has produced new Northern Ireland forecasts.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory, but Labour support continuing to increase”.

Our forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a clear working majority in the Commons. New poll results have led to some small adjustments over our last forecast. A new poll in Northern Ireland has led to a significant change in our forecast there.

The Conservatives continue to exhibit a strong lead over Labour through the whole country. We see evidence that the Conservative vote share has reached a temporary plateau whilst Labour continue to rise as the campaign continues. The Liberal Democrats’ vote share has now stabilised at just above 15%.

The Brexit Party continue to drop in support across the country as uncertainty over where they will stand hits their support.

After a couple of weeks of falling polls, we now see evidence that Green Party support is stabilising.

In Scotland the SNP continue to show a strong lead looking to win around 50 seats. We do however see some evidence that support for them is beginning to fall, though today’s forecast has a better seat range for them than yesterday. Labour are in a strong third place above the Liberal Democrats, with an increased margin but the Liberal Democrats continue to have a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats. There continues to be uncertainty in the exact level of Conservative support north of the border and this is reflected in the large range given for their seats.

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales but that has diminished over the past week. There is less of a disconnect between the large YouGov survey last week which had the Conservatvies and Labour neck and neck and the Welsh subsamples in the national polls which give a view of a strong Conservative lead in the Principality. We now forecast Labour to have a narrow lead in seats in Wales, but not a majority. We are back to a situation where the most likely outcome is Labour marginally beating the Conservatives on seats, but losing on vote share.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is updated based on a new poll from Lucid Talk.

Once the final candidates list is known, we will make adjustments for where parties are not standing in particular seats.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives38.7%344 – 350+27to +33
 Labour28.6%205 – 208-67 to -64
 SNP3.5% 46 – 52+11 to +17
Liberal Democrats15.2%21 – 27+9 to +15
Brexit Party6.5%0
Plaid Cymru0.5%2 – 4-2 to 0
Green3.0%0 – 2-1 to +1
Independent0 – 2
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP41.6%46 – 52+11 to +17
Conservatives23.0%0 – 9-13 to -4
Liberal Democrats 13.0%3 – 6-1 to +2
Labour16.1%0 – 2-7 to -5
Brexit Party 3.3%
Greens2.5%  

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour31.9%17 – 20-11 to -8
Conservatives34.7%16 – 19+8 to +11
Plaid Cymru9.4%2 – 4-2 to 0
Liberal Democrats 12.5%0 – 20 to +2
Brexit Party9.9%  
Greens1.6%  

Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour37.3%41 – 44-6 to -3
Conservatives31.0%24 – 26+3 to +5
Liberal Democrats20.6%4 – 7+1 to +4
Greens5.1%
Brexit Party4.6%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP28.0%7 – 10-3 to 0
Sinn Fein24.0%3 – 6-4 to -1
SDLP15.0%1 – 4+1 to +4
Alliance19.4%0 – 20 to +2
UUP9.0%0 – 20 to +2
Independent 0 – 2

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality




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