Forecast #GE2019 – 12th November 2019 1


This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – Data from the most recent ICM and BMG polls has become available.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory, but Labour support continuing to increase”.

Our forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a clear working majority in the Commons. Support for the Conservatives has risen since the last forecast. Some regional dramatic polling by YouGov underscores the observation that Labour are much further down from their 2017 position than the Conservatives are, but polling in the last few days indicates that their position is slowly improving.

In Scotland the SNP continue to show a strong lead looking to win around 50 seats. Labour are in a strong third place above the Liberal Democrats, with an increased margin. The Liberal Democrats continue to have a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats. There continues to be uncertainty in te exact level of Conservative support north of the border and this is reflected in the large range given for their seats.

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales and we now show a strong likelihood of them winning a clear majority of seats. There is however a disconnect between the large YouGov survey last week which had the Conservatvies and Labour neck and neck and the Welsh subsamples in the national polls which give a view of a strong Conservative lead in the Principality. This is therefore our most volatile forecast and that is reflected in the seat ranges. We do though continue to expect a Conservative plurality of seats, if not a majority, and our forecast today provides a narrower range of seats, implying a greater confidence since yesterday.

We also see evidence that the Plaid Cymru position in Wales will improve with the new electoral pact with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. Once we have the confirmed candidates list we will fully incorporate these changes into our forecast.

This is our first forecast where we believe the Brexit Party has no significant possibility of winning any seats.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.

Once the final candidates list is known, we will make adjustments for where parties are not standing in particular seats.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives38.5%344 – 353+27 to +36
 Labour28.4%203 – 206-69 to -66
 SNP3.5% 45 – 54+10 to +19
Liberal Democrats14.8%22 – 25+10 to +13
Brexit Party7.2%0
Plaid Cymru0.5%2 – 5-2 to +1
Green2.8%0 – 2-1 to +1
Independent0 – 2
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP42.0%45 – 54+10 to +19
Conservatives23.0%0 – 9-13 to -4
Liberal Democrats 11.2%3 – 5-1 to +1
Labour17.7%0 – 2-7 to -5
Brexit Party 3.5%
Greens2.0%  

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Conservatives34.9%18 – 20+10 to +12
Labour 28.9%15 – 18 -13 to -10
Liberal Democrats 12.3%0 – 20 to +2
Plaid Cymru9.7% 2 – 5-3 to 0
Brexit Party10.6%  
Greens2.0%  

Most Likely Result – Conservative Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour36.4%39 – 45-10 to -4
Conservatives30.7%24 – 27+3 to +6
Liberal Democrats21.0%4 – 7+1 to +4
Brexit Party5.1%
Greens4.8%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP29.1%8 – 10-2 to 0
Sinn Fein25.0%5 – 7-2 to 0
Alliance24.1%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2
SDLP8.0%0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality


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