Forecast #GE2019 – 31st October 2019 1


This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls in the last few days have been included.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory”.

Our forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a clear working majority in the Commons. Although support for the Conservatives has fallen since the last forecast, a larger fall in support for Labour means that the overall range for Conservatives seats is at a higher position than before. Our variance in the Conservative vote share figure illustrates the vast difference between the polling firms in stating the Tory lead and the seat range uncertainty correlates to that.

This is our first forecast in over a month where we see support for the Brexit Party rising.

In Scotland the SNP go into the Election period with a strong lead looking to win around 50 seats. Labour are back into third place above the Liberal Democrats, but by a narrow margin. The Liberal Democrats continue to have a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats.

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales and we now show a strong likelihood of them winning a clear majority of seats. This is our most volatile forecast with small subsamples to work on, but across numerous opinion polls the Conservative lead over Labour is clear to see.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives36.0% (32.5% – 39.5%)358 – 367+41 to +52
 Labour22.3% (20.2% – 24.4%)167 – 191-95 to -71
 SNP3.7% 49 – 52+14 to +17
Liberal Democrats19.1% (17.7% – 20.5%)26 – 38+14 to +26
Brexit Party11.8% (10.4% – 13.2%)0 – 5– to +5
Plaid Cymru0.6%3 – 5-1 to +1
Green3.3% (2.2% – 4.4%)0 -2-1 to +1
Independent0-2
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP43.2%49 – 52+14 to +17
Conservatives23.0%1 – 7-12 to -6
Liberal Democrats 12.8%3 – 5-1 to +1
Labour13.1%0 – 2-7 to -5
Brexit Party 5.5%
Greens2.4%  

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Conservatives32.4%15 – 24+7 to +16
Labour 23.3%8 – 20 -20 to -8
Liberal Democrats 21.5% 1 – 4+1 to +4
Plaid Cymru11.5% 3 – 5-1 to +1
Brexit Party9.9%   
Greens1.4%   

Most Likely Result – Conservative Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour33.5%38 – 41-11 to -8
Conservatives30.1%26 – 29+5 to +8
Liberal Democrats23.6%5 – 7+2 to +4
Brexit Party8.2%
Greens4.6%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP29.1%8 – 10-2 to 0
Sinn Fein25.0%5 – 7-2 to 0
Alliance24.1%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2
SDLP8.0%0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality


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One thought on “Forecast #GE2019 – 31st October 2019

  • David Baker

    Hmmm… Tis possible… Interesting. My hunch is still Conservatives biggest party, short of majority, capable of being out-voted by Labour and SNP possibly with some kind of Lib Dem tacit support… Hmmm!
    I think Caroline Lucas is a definite for the Greens in Brighton.