Forecast #GE2019 – 4th November 2019

This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls over the weekend have been included. We have also incorporated the results from a number of constituency polls.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory, but Labour support increasing”.

Our forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a clear working majority in the Commons. Support for the Conservatives has risen since the last forecast, but the most dramatic aspect of our new forecast is the rise in support for Labour. As the election campaign gets underway, the minds of the electorate are focused on the reality of the upcoming choice, and it appears that support for Labour has increased significantly in parts of the country, particularly London and Scotland. In the latter however, that does not crystalise into seats.

In Scotland the SNP go into the Election period with a strong lead looking to win around 50 seats. Labour are in a strong third place above the Liberal Democrats, with an increased margin. The Liberal Democrats continue to have a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats.

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales and we now show a strong likelihood of them winning a clear majority of seats. This is our most volatile forecast with small sub-samples to work on, but across numerous opinion polls the Conservative lead over Labour is clear to see.

We see some dramatic effects of the Conservative surge in Wales in seat win probabilities. At the time of this forecast we have the Tories at over a 75% chance of winning in Yns Mon, a 95% probability of taking the Gower and a 90% chance of winning Clwyd South.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives38.6% (35.8% – 41.4%)356 – 368+37 to +51
 Labour27.2% (25.1% – 29.3%)182 – 191-80 to -71
 SNP3.7% 50 – 53+15 to +18
Liberal Democrats15.4% (13.5% – 17.3%)25 – 28+13 to +16
Brexit Party8.9% (7.5% – 10.3%)0 – 2– to +2
Plaid Cymru0.4%2 – 4-2 to 0
Green2.7% (1.8% – 3.7%)0 -2-1 to +1
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP44.4%50 – 53+15 to +18
Conservatives21.8%1 – 4-12 to -9
Liberal Democrats 10.5%3 – 5-1 to +1
Labour16.7%0 – 2-7 to -5
Brexit Party 3.9%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Conservatives37.2%17 – 23+9 to +15
Labour 29.9%13 – 19 -15 to -9
Liberal Democrats 10.7%0 – 20 to +2
Plaid Cymru8.6% 2 – 4-3 to -1
Brexit Party11.5%  

Most Likely Result – Conservative Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour36.9%39 – 41-10 to -8
Conservatives31.4%24 – 26+3 to +5
Liberal Democrats22,4%7 – 9+4 to +6
Brexit Party5.5%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP29.1%8 – 10-2 to 0
Sinn Fein25.0%5 – 7-2 to 0
Alliance24.1%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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