This is our latest forecast for the 23rd of May 2019 European Parliament Election in Great Britain.
This is a Forwardcast representing the result we expect on the 23rd of May.
What does your forecast show? – We show the expected range of percentage vote for each party, together with the central forecast. The range is a 50% confidence interval (but will move to a 95% confidence interval for our final forecast). We also show the expected number of seats across the whole of Great Britain.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
Do you do a regional forecast for Wales and Scotland? – For a General Election we would conduct a forecast at regional and sub-regional levels. At present the level of polling data for the UK does not support regional forecasts.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Key Features
Our updated forecast shows a slight reduction in the Brexit Party’s lead, but still an overwhelming margin above the Labour Party in second place. We continue to forecast the most likely rankings to be Brexit Party 1st, Labour 2nd, Liberal Democrats 3rd and Conservatives 4th, though there is evidence that the Conservatives may yet push back into third place.
Regional sub-samples indicate that support for the SNP and Plaid Cymru is firming up and they should achieve at least the same outcome in seats as 2014. This is a significant difference since our last forecast yesterday.
Green Party support seems to be very much dependent upon turnout modelling and our latest forecast has moved them down in both percentage vote and seats won. We currently forecast them losing all three of their seats.
There is no forecast for Northern Ireland due to limited data. We anticipate a similar result to 2014 (1 seat each for Sinn Fein, DUP and UUP).
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast Seats | Change on 2014 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brexit Party | 35.5% (31.1% – 38.9%) | 32 | +32 | |||
| Labour | 19.7% (16.2% – 23.2%) | 16 | -4 | |||
| Liberal Democrats | 14.2% (11.7% – 16.7%) | 10 | +9 | |||
| Conservatives | 11.9% (10.0% – 13.8%) | 8 | -11 | |||
| Green | 6.5% (4.4% – 8.6%) | – | -3 | |||
| Change UK | 5.0% (3.6% – 6.4%) | 0 | – | |||
| UKIP | 3.2% (2.9% – 3.5%) | 0 | -24 | |||
| SNP | 3.1% (2.6% – 3.6%) | 3 | +1 | |||
| Plaid Cymru | 0.8% (0.3% – 1.3%) | 1 | – |
| Outcome (Votes) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| Brexit Party Labour Liberal Democrats Conservative | 64.3% | |
| Brexit Party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrats | 24.7% | |
| Brexit Party Liberal Democrats Labour Conservative | 7.9% | |
| All Others | <5% | |
| Brexit Party beats Labour | 99.8% | |
| Labour beats Conservatives | 97.1% | |
| Labour beats Liberal Democrats | 90.3% | |
| Liberal Democrats beat Conservatives | 73.7% | |
| Greens Change UK UKIP | 62.6% | |
| Change UK Greens UKIP | 19.4% | |
| Greens UKIP Change UK | 11.8% | |
| Change UK UKIP Greens | 5.4% | |
| All Others | <5% |